A simple Markov model for the analysis of multiple air combat

Abstract

It is proposed to describe multiple air-to-air combat having a moderate number of participants with the aid of a stochastic process based on end-game duels. A simple model describing the dominant features of air combat leads to a continuous time discrete-state Markov process. Solution of the forward Kolmogorov equations enables one to investigate the influence of initial force levels and Performance parameters on the outcome probabilities of the multiple engagement. As is illustrated, such results may be useful in the decision-making process for aircraft and weapon system development planning. Some comparisons are made with Lanchester models as well as with a semi-Markov model.

Guidance and control for own aircraft in the autonomous air combat: A historical review and future prospects

“…Later air combat-related works that utilize MDP idea are presented in Oberle; 167 Feigin et al. ; 168 Reuss; 169 Tunay et al. ; 170 Shengde et al.…”

“…Reference Feigin et al. 168 dealt with decisions in the multiple air combat engagement (M-to-N). The engagements were divided into multiple ones with less players.…”

“…Later air combat-related works that utilize MDP idea are presented in Oberle; 167 Feigin et al; 168 Reuss; 169 Tunay et al; 170 Shengde et al; 171 Jia et al; 172 Feng and Yao; 173 and Changqiang et al 174 In Oberle, 167 the air-to-air engagement was modeled as Markov process. Other factors including the weaponry effectiveness was also involved to estimate the player's offensive/defensive capability in the air combat.…”

“…Other factors including the weaponry effectiveness was also involved to estimate the player's offensive/defensive capability in the air combat. Reference Feigin et al 168 dealt with decisions in the multiple air combat engagement (M-to-N). The engagements were divided into multiple ones with less players.…”

“…In history, the MDP-based approach dealt with two lines: (a) real-time engagement 75,164,165 and (b) decisions in the complex combat scenarios. 168 Starting with the first line, the biggest difference of MDP as compared to other approaches is the two assumptions. The first assumption down-samples the state space.…”