A Second Generation of Tsunami Inundation Maps for the State of California

Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, José C.; Uslu, Burak; Legg, Mark R.; Synolakis, Costas E.

doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0293-3

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…For the later we developed detailed flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using the Synolakis (1987) relations adapted to El Salvador (a similar approximation was used for the state of California; Eisner et al, 2001;Barberopoulou et al, 2011). As described above, 24 tsunami scenarios from different seismic sources at different locations that could impact the study area have been defined.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

Álvarez‐Gómez

Aniel-Quiroga

Gutiérrez

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differencesfinite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Subtracting the topography from this grid we obtain an estimated flooded area on those cells with positive values. This approximation has been used in a similar way previously (Eisner et al, 2001;Barberopoulou et al, 2011).…”

Section: Hazard Map At National Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

Álvarez‐Gómez

Aniel-Quiroga

Gutiérrez

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Wave heights offshore Fukushima from other sources around the Pacific Rim were up to three times higher than those from the 2010 Maule earthquake (see figure 4). As TEPCO [61] As an example of what has been the world standard, at least since 2006, consider the wave amplification at a specific site from M w 9.0 earthquake sources around the Pacific Rim as presented by [71,72]. Other than the comprehensive analysis of the hazards from near-field sources, such as the one shown in fig.…”

Section: A Last Chance To Avoid the Accident Was Lostmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fukushima accident was preventable

Synolakis

Kânoğlu

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The 11 March 2011 tsunami was probably the fourth largest in the past 100 years and killed over 15 000 people. The magnitude of the design tsunami triggering earthquake affecting this region of Japan had been grossly underestimated, and the tsunami hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the third most severe accident in an NPP ever. Interestingly, while the Onagawa NPP was also hit by a tsunami of approximately the same height as Dai-ichi, it survived the event ‘remarkably undamaged’. We explain what has been referred to as the cascade of engineering and regulatory failures that led to the Fukushima disaster. One, insufficient attention had been given to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region earlier, to Japanese research suggestive that large earthquakes could occur anywhere along a subduction zone, and to new research on mega-thrusts since Boxing Day 2004. Two, there were unexplainably different design conditions for NPPs at close distances from each other. Three, the hazard analysis to calculate the maximum probable tsunami at Dai-ichi appeared to have had methodological mistakes, which almost nobody experienced in tsunami engineering would have made. Four, there were substantial inadequacies in the Japan nuclear regulatory structure. The Fukushima accident was preventable, if international best practices and standards had been followed, if there had been international reviews, and had common sense prevailed in the interpretation of pre-existing geological and hydrodynamic findings. Formal standards are needed for evaluating the tsunami vulnerability of NPPs, for specific training of engineers and scientists who perform tsunami computations for emergency preparedness or critical facilities, as well as for regulators who review safety studies.

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“…In addition, the definition of the design scenario to be used in the preparation of inundation maps remains in itself a challenge, as we do not necessarily understand the maximum earthquake expectable in a particular seismic area (see §1). As an example, inundation mapping has been completed for the coastlines of California [81].…”

Section: Mitigation Wisdommentioning

confidence: 99%

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

Okal¹

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Since the catastrophic Sumatra–Andaman tsunami took place in 2004, 16 other tsunamis have resulted in significant damage and 14 in casualties. We review the fundamental changes that have affected our command of tsunami issues as scientists, engineers and decision-makers, in the quest for improved wisdom in this respect. While several scientific paradigms have had to be altered or abandoned, new algorithms, e.g. the W seismic phase and real-time processing of fast-arriving seismic P waves, give us more powerful tools to estimate in real time the tsunamigenic character of an earthquake. We assign to each event a ‘wisdom index’ based on the warning issued (or not) during the event, and on the response of the population. While this approach is admittedly subjective, it clearly shows several robust trends: (i) we have made significant progress in our command of far-field warning, with only three casualties in the past 10 years; (ii) self-evacuation by educated populations in the near field is a key element of successful tsunami mitigation; (iii) there remains a significant cacophony between the scientific community and decision-makers in industry and government as documented during the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku events; and (iv) the so-called ‘tsunami earthquakes’ generating larger tsunamis than expected from the size of their seismic source persist as a fundamental challenge, despite scientific progress towards characterizing these events in real time.

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A Second Generation of Tsunami Inundation Maps for the State of California

Cited by 16 publications

References 30 publications

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

The Fukushima accident was preventable

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

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