A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate

Wang, Lei; Ting, Mingfang; Kushner, Paul J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y

Cited by 153 publications

(140 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…However, there is also evidence that other climate components such as the stratosphere, sea ice, and local and remote air‐sea interactions affect the NAO variability. Recently, it has been shown that these subcomponents can be used to enhance the NAO prediction (Dobrynin et al, ; Hall et al, ; Wang et al, ). To examine the total effect of the higher‐resolution model version, the contributions of these climate subsystems on the NAO variability need to be considered; this is not done here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR)

Müller

Jungclaus

Mauritsen

et al. 2018

J Adv Model Earth Syst

367

179

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The MPI‐ESM1.2 is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and is the baseline for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and current seasonal and decadal climate predictions. This paper evaluates a coupled higher‐resolution version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) in comparison with its lower‐resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We focus on basic oceanic and atmospheric mean states and selected modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The increase in atmospheric resolution in MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR reduces the biases of upper‐level zonal wind and atmospheric jet stream position in the northern extratropics. This results in a decrease of the storm track bias over the northern North Atlantic, for both winter and summer season. The blocking frequency over the European region is improved in summer, and North Atlantic Oscillation and related storm track variations improve in winter. Stable Atlantic meridional overturning circulations are found with magnitudes of ~16 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR and ~20 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR at 26°N. A strong sea surface temperature bias of ~5°C along with a too zonal North Atlantic current is present in both versions. The sea surface temperature bias in the eastern tropical Atlantic is reduced by ~1°C due to higher‐resolved orography in MPI‐ESM‐HR, and the region of the cold‐tongue bias is reduced in the tropical Pacific. MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR has a well‐balanced radiation budget and its climate sensitivity is explicitly tuned to 3 K. Although the obtained reductions in long‐standing biases are modest, the improvements in atmospheric dynamics make this model well suited for prediction and impact studies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR)

Müller

Jungclaus

Mauritsen

et al. 2018

J Adv Model Earth Syst

367

179

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“…Our choice of these months was primarily motivated by previous studies suggesting links between September and October sea ice and the winter atmospheric circulation (Francis et al, 2009;Hall et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017), but was also constrained by what was achievable using the albedo reduction method. This results in yearround reduction in SIE highly similar to that projected in the 2C ensemble.…”

Section: Model and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Autumn Arctic sea ice has been shown to be a potential predictor of the winter NAO in both dynamical (Scaife et al, 2014) and statistical forecasts (Hall et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017). This has implications for understanding the underlying physical mechanisms and for seasonal predictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Autumn Compared to That in Winter on the Atmospheric Circulation

Blackport

Screen

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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There is growing evidence that Arctic sea ice loss affects the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Some studies suggest that reduced autumn sea ice may be a precursor to severe midlatitude winters. Here we use coupled ocean–atmosphere model experiments to investigate the extent to which the winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss is driven by sea ice loss in preceding months. We impose different seasonal cycles of sea ice by using various combinations of sea ice albedo parameters. Year‐round sea ice loss causes an equatorward migration of the eddy‐driven jet and a shift toward the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. However, these circulation changes are not found when sea ice is reduced only in late summer and autumn, despite high‐latitude warming persisting into the winter. Our results imply that the winter atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss is primarily driven by sea ice loss in winter rather than in autumn.

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“…Hall et al ., ; Smith et al ., ), with the possibility that forecasts can be extended to over a year ahead (Dunstone et al ., ). Recent statistical forecasts of the winter NAO provide further evidence for this link (Hall et al ., ; Wang et al ., ). A reliable seasonal forecast of the winter NAO will indicate the weather patterns expected in the UK during the upcoming winter months, which is invaluable to planners and decision makers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting

Hanna

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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UK seasonal mean temperature and precipitation conditions are extremely variable from one year to the next but in the last decade have featured several cool, wet summers and mild, wet winters interspersed with some notable cold winter episodes. Jet stream variability is a major determinant of these fluctuations and is often represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Recent work has shown some evidence of promising predictability in the winter NAO from 1 to 2 months ahead, while summer predictability remains very limited. Although the phase and magnitude of the NAO influences total UK rainfall, there are regional variations which it does not explain. Here we examine the relationship between UK regional summer and winter precipitation and temperature and a range of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices. While the NAO shows a significant relationship with temperature in both seasons and summer rainfall over most of the UK, the picture in winter is more complicated, with other circulation indices such as the East Atlantic pattern explaining rainfall anomalies in southern England. Other indices also show significant relationships with precipitation in regions where the NAO does not. Because UK weather is determined by the interplay between different circulation indices, attention should be given to developing seasonal forecasts of other circulation indices to complement the NAO forecasts. We also find that some potential drivers of jet stream variability are significantly associated with UK temperature and rainfall variability, particularly in summer. This provides further scope for producing seasonal forecasts based directly on these drivers. Improved seasonal forecasts will be useful to a range of end users in agriculture, energy supply, transport and insurance industries and can be extended to other UK weather variables such as extreme rainfall events and storm frequency, and related metrics such as wind power capacity and solar energy.

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A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate

Cited by 153 publications

References 51 publications

A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR)

A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR)

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Autumn Compared to That in Winter on the Atmospheric Circulation

North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting

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