A RISK‐BASED APPROACH FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION OF A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR¹

Abstract

Many approaches are available for operation of a multipurpose reservoir during flood season; one of them is allocation of storage space for flood control. A methodology to determine a reservoir operation policy based on explicit risk consideration is presented. The objective of the formulation is to maximize the reservoir storage at the end of a flood season while ensuring that the risk of an overflow is within acceptable limits. The Dynamic Programming technique has been used to solve the problem. This approach has been applied to develop operation policies for an existing reservoir. The performance of the policy was evaluated through simulation and was found to be satisfactory.

An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk

“…Flood control requires a certain amount of empty storage during the flood season, while water conservation requires certain storage of water for current and future uses for irrigation, recreation, and hydropower generation. Many investigators have studied the trade-off between flood control and water conservation purposes [Croley et al, 1979;Krzysztofowicz and Duckstein, 1979;Datta and Houck, 1984;Simonovic and Burn, 1989;Jain et al, 1992;Hsu and Wei, 2007;Ngo et al, 2007Ngo et al, , 2008Wei and Hsu, 2009]. For example, Krzysztofowicz and Duckstein [1979] developed a preference criterion for reservoir flood control with consideration of water conservation under uncertain conditions.…”

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

“…In the cases in which the damage cost function is unavailable or cannot be estimated, functions can be used that consider the risk (probability) of exceeding a given threshold without taking into account the consequences (Jain et al, 1992;Rasekh et al, 2010). In such a case, the PDA should be used.…”

“…The synthetic generation of inflow hydrographs and stochastic prediction of flood events (stochastic approach) allows the ensemble of inputs to be representative of heavy to extreme flood events and also permits consideration of the uncertainty associated with the input variables (Alemu et al, 2011;Faber and Stedinger, 2001). The stochastic approach is also of interest because it allows risk analysis, which is relevant for the reservoir flood control operation in connection with floodplain management (Jain et al, 1992;Lund, 2002;Apel et al, 2004). Furthermore, Valdés and Marco (1995) highlighted the importance of including the risk of dam overtopping in reservoir operation models.…”

Probabilistic-Multiobjective Comparison of User-Defined Operating Rules. Case Study: Hydropower Dam in Spain

“…Then, five indices were defined with each assessing one particular part of the problem (Equations (1)-(5)). They were formulated, regarding the characterization variable considered, as risk of failure or expected values [10,13,15]. The definition of risk considered here refers to the probability of loading exceeding the system resistance [39].…”

“…Many of these studies consider reservoir operation during the entire flood season (in months), and operate at a monthly-to-daily scale [9,10,12,13,15,16]. Given that the flood events that occur in semiarid regions or countries, such as Spain, are relatively short, dams are operated in a short-term framework (days to weeks).…”