A Revised Historical Fire Regime Analysis in Tunisia (1985–2010) from a Critical Analysis of the National Fire Database and Remote Sensing

Moron

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

185

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heatinduced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heatinduced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Ruffault

Moron

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

185

“…For Tunisia, fire statistics were obtained from the Tunisian fire database 35 as compiled from the records of the Tunisian Directorate-General for Forests and curated from various remote sensing sources. Wildfires from 2011 to 2015 were ignored because of the disruption in fire activity resulting from the Arab spring in December 2010 35 . Fire statistics for the four studied databases are shown in Supplementary Figure 2.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Ruffault

Moron

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate changes on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote large wildfires remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency and severity of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been responsible for a majority of record-breaking wildfire events. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry warm conditions and occur in the summer during heatwaves, either under moderate (sudden heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. Heat-induced fire weather is projected to increase in frequency by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5. These findings suggest that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin, with far-reaching impacts.

“…Fire is widespread in this country due to the presence of flammable fuels such as shrublands and forests [1], a climate favorable to ignition and propagation, and the frequent use or misuse of fire by the rural population or the authorities, notably at the rural-urban interfaces. However, if the scientific literature has produced a considerable amount of knowledge and models dealing with wildfires of the northern rim of the MB [2][3][4], wildfire issues remained largely disregarded in the southern part [5]. Despite recent progress in the investigation of fire causes [6], fire science and policy in Algeria still lack operational models explaining the drivers of fire occurrence [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire Activity in Mediterranean Forests (The Algerian Case)

Aini

Dupire

2020

Fire

Algeria has high wildfire activity, albeit restricted to the northern coastal fringe. However, no study has investigated why fire is restricted to that area, and what combination of factors explains the occurrence of wildfires. Here, we describe the current fire regime of Northern Algeria from 2000 to 2019 and we correlate fire activity to a range of environmental and anthropic drivers. We found a strong north–south gradient in fire occurrence: it is maximal in the high-fueled (productive) oak forests of Northern Algeria with high annual rainfall amount, whereas it is fuel-limited in the South due to semi-arid conditions. We determined that fire is nearly absent where the bioclimate is subarid or arid, due to the steppic vegetation with summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values below 0.35. Therefore, fire occupies a narrow niche in space (the humid and subhumid areas with high productivity) and in time as most fires occur in summer after the high rainfalls from fall to spring that promote fuel growth. Humans also play a role as fire hotspots are concentrated in croplands and in built-up areas with high human density and infrastructures mixed with shrublands and forests. We discuss how the ongoing climate changes and the desertification progressing towards the North of Algeria may finally restrict forests to a narrow fringe providing less and less ecological services to the Algerian people.