A review on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation in Malaysia

Heng, Hock Hwee; Hii, Ching Poon

doi:10.1504/ijhst.2011.040741

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…One problem with the estimation of the PMP is that several perfectly adequate approaches exist, but with no objective way of assessing the accuracy of the estimates [ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) , ]. This explains why there is still considerable work being done in this field [e.g., Ohara et al ., , England , ; Heng and Ching Poon , ; Chen and Bradley , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate

et al. 2013

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[1] This study is focused on assessing a summer-fall probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under recent climate conditions and then applying it under a future projected climate using output information from a regional climate model. The estimated PMPs are forced into a hydrological model to investigate potential changes in probable maximum flood (PMF) values. The PMP method is based on the moisture maximization method developed by the World Meteorological Organization. Precipitable water amounts are evaluated using data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The approach was tested on the Manic-5 River basin in Canada. Results show the PMP intensity could increase by 0.5-6% for 48 h and 72 h PMP values by the 2071-2100 horizon. These PMP values were used to assess projected PMF values. A lumped conceptual hydrological model was calibrated under recent climate values and model parameters were kept unchanged for modeling future hydrological regimes. Hydrological modeling results indicate modest changes of the PMF values for future climate projections, with no clearly identified upward or downward trends. The study also highlighted the need for a coherent approach to estimate PMF values under future climate conditions using projected PMP estimates, since the current practice of simulating the PMF value by inserting half of a PMP six days prior to the PMP event in a meteorological time series did not produce consistent results. An approach based on a random insertion of the PMP into a meteorological time series is a promising avenue to explore.Citation: Beauchamp, J., R. Leconte, M. Trudel, and F. Brissette (2013), Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate, Water Resour. Res., 49,[3852][3853][3854][3855][3856][3857][3858][3859][3860][3861][3862]

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate

et al. 2013

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Comparison of water supply dams' spillway performance in Malaysia

Hwee

Poon

Fook

2014

IJHST

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A Case Study On Gerugu Dam Overtopping Under Different PMP Scenarios

Hwee¹,

Poon²

2013

JCEST

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A hydrological dam safety inspection was carried out for existing Gerugu dam (CA= 14 km2) by evaluating the hydrological performance of the bellmouth spillway in light of two different sets of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). For safety reason, it is utmost important that the flood rise does not exceed the embankment dam crest level (ECL). Gerugu dam (CA= 14 km2) is a small catchment earthfill zoned embankment dam that supplies raw waters to the water treatment plant downstream. This study selects both “coastal” type of PMP [13], [14] which is mostly representative of the extreme precipitation parameters adopted in the design of the dam and a recent set of PMP under NAHRIM [11] study. A catchment routing procedure is then used to translate the PMPs to PMFs for 1- to 120-hour duration and a conventional reservoir routing in tandem to estimate the outflows and corresponding flood rise over the full supply level (FSL) of the reservoir. The dam is considered safe under both coastal and NAHRIM [11] PMP scenarios as the flood rises for all cases are confined below the embankment crest level (ECL), i.e. +33.0 m msl.

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A review on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation in Malaysia

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate

Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate

Comparison of water supply dams' spillway performance in Malaysia

A Case Study On Gerugu Dam Overtopping Under Different PMP Scenarios

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