A review of trend models applied to sea level data with reference to the “acceleration‐deceleration debate”

Visser, Hubregt J.; Dangendorf, Sönke; Petersen, Arthur C.

doi:10.1002/2015jc010716

Cited by 74 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 108 publications

(192 reference statements)

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“…It is acknowledged that some studies indicate uncertainties in the ability of EMD to detect long-term variations and acceleration in sea level [30,47], especially if the records are not long enough, though this problem is not unique to EMD and according to [33], it is not clear which of the many possible analysis methods is preferred for detection of sea level acceleration. Furthermore, a recent study [18] evaluated the statistics of ensemble EMD calculations using very long European sea level records and shows that for records long enough (even with some gaps) EMD can detect acceleration that is almost identical to that obtained by the standard least squares fitting methods.…”

Section: Emd Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, the accelerations are estimated for the Bohai Sea (BS), Yellow Sea (YS), and East China Sea (ECS) separately. Visser et al [33] reviewed 30 trend models applied in the field of sea level research and concluded that varying trend approaches may lead to contradictory acceleration-deceleration inferences. Therefore, the present study compares three different methods, including the linear least squares fitting method, evolution of SLR rates method [20], and sea level rate difference method [29,34] to determine the SLA in the past 55-65 years over the China Seas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea Level Acceleration in the China Seas

Cheng

Ezer

Hamlington

2016

Water

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While global mean sea level rise (SLR) and acceleration (SLA) are indicators of climate change and are informative regarding the current state of the climate, assessments of regional and local SLR are essential for policy makers responding to, and preparing for, changes in sea level. In this work, three acceleration detection techniques are used to demonstrate the robust SLA in the China Seas. Interannual to multidecadal sea level variations (periods >2 years), which are mainly related to natural internal climate variability and significantly affect estimation of sea level acceleration, are removed with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) analysis prior to the acceleration determination. Consistent SLAs of 0.085˘0.020 mm¨yr´2 and 0.074˘0.032 mm¨yr´2 in regional tide gauge records are shown to result from the three applied approaches in the Bohai Sea (BS) and East China Sea (ECS), respectively. The SLAs can be detected in records as short as 20 years if long-term sea level variability is adequately removed. The spatial distribution of SLA derived from a sea level reconstruction shows significant SLA in the BS, Yellow Sea (YS) and Yangtze River Estuary.

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Section: Emd Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Acceleration in the China Seas

Cheng

Ezer

Hamlington

2016

Water

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“…The corresponding uncertainty is usually addressed by simulating the natural variability, represented by the residuals around the trend line, in Monte-Carlo experiments under the assumption that it follows a specific noise process (e.g., ref. 46). Although it has been widely accepted that an autoregressive process of the order 1 is suitable for this purpose (e.g., ref.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Dangendorf

Marcos

Wöppelmann

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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312

237

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The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm·y −1 . Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm·y −1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm·y −1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual

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“…A number of different techniques have been used to estimate acceleration of local relative sea level (for example, see Visser et al [24]), but the results are controversial (see for example Kenigson and Han [25]; Piecuch and Ponte [26]). Haigh et al [27] demonstrated the difficulty of estimating accelerations from local tide-gauge observations, the necessity for long time series (Douglas [28] argued that almost 50 years was required), and the importance of removing unforced and naturally forced variability.…”

Section: Historical Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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A review of trend models applied to sea level data with reference to the “acceleration‐deceleration debate”

Cited by 74 publications

References 108 publications

Sea Level Acceleration in the China Seas

Sea Level Acceleration in the China Seas

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

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