A review of the methodologies used in evacuation modelling

Gwynne, S.; Galea, Edwin R.; Owen, M.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Filippidis, L.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1018(199911/12)23:6<383::aid-fam715>3.0.co;2-2

Cited by 118 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…It is based on the comparison of the Available Safe Egress Time (ASET) and Required Safe Egress Time (RSET) (Nelson and Mowrer, 2002;Purser, 2003). In order to estimate RSET, different macroscopic and microscopic evacuation models and simulation tools are available to test the performance of an infrastructure during emergencies (Gwynne et al, 1999;Hensher et al, 2005;Johnson, 2005;Kuligowski et al, 2010;Zheng et al, 2009). These tools are largely used to evaluate the safety level of both new and existing transportation terminals and tunnels (Weidmann et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Lovreglio

Fonzone

dell’Olio

et al. 2014

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

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Modelling of human behaviour during emergencies is an important issue to be investigated to improve the safety of transportation infrastructures. This behaviour can be influenced by both the environment (i.e. social influences) and characteristics of the users of infrastructures. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the social influences that push a user to manifest a herding behaviour during evacuations. A behavioural model based on discrete choice models is proposed by using data collected through an on-line survey. This approach is able to highlight the heterogenic tastes of decision makers that may influence this choice in exit behaviour. The results show that decision makers are influenced by both people close to the exit and their socio-economic characteristic.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Lovreglio

Fonzone

dell’Olio

et al. 2014

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

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“…For all kinds of disasters there are evacuation simulation models suggested. Concerning traffic and transport evacuations ( [1], [18]), for wildfires ( [2]), buildings and building fires ( [3], [5], [6], [8], [10], [12], [14]), concerning hurricanes ( [4], [19], [21]), for maritime evacuations ( [11], [7]), evacuations during aircraft accidents ( [16], [17]), evacuations from accidents in plants and regions ( [13]), and for evacuations of hospitals ( [20]). …”

Section: Evacuation Models; Some Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evacuation models and disaster psychology

Vorst

2010

Procedia Engineering

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In evacuation models of buildings, neighborhoods, areas, cities and countries important psychological parameters are not frequently used. In this paper the relevance of some important variables from disaster psychology will be discussed. Modeling psychological variables will enhance prediction of human behavior during evacuations. John Leach's Dynamic Disaster Model describes three phases and five stages: A Pre-impact phase (Threat Stage and Warning Stage), an Impact phase, and a Post-impact phase (Recoil Stage, Rescue Stage and Post-traumatic Stage). In each phase and stage specific human behavior has been supposed to be a psychological response to a disaster. These responses are remarkably consistent and transferable across kinds of disasters. Evacuation happens during Pre-impact phase, Impact phase and Post-impact phase (Recoil Stage and, or Rescue Stage). People's cognitive and emotional states and overt behavior will be very different across the phases. During the Pre-impact phase risk estimation is very low, so evacuation is not seen as an inevitable action. Heavy stress and denial of life-threatening events during the Impact phase will hinder effective evacuation. Inactivity, apathy and childlike dependency on other people during the Recoil Stage will restrain survivors from active evacuation. Evacuation models will be more effective if phases and accompanying human behavior are taken into account. The Human Factor during evacuation; an exampleIn the south and east of the Netherlands there is a risk of extreme flooding of the river deltas each year during spring. The risk will be greater in the near future, caused by changes of the earth climate, which are currently predicted. The climate change will bring more rain to Europe and the Netherlands. In the same time period there will be Dutch Carnival in the south and east of the Netherlands. During four days a significant part of the community is involved in drinking, eating, singing and dancing day and night. Families are scattered over many places.It is absolutely not inconceivable that an extreme flooding will take place on the last day of the Carnival, a Tuesday. Within hours, the partying people would have to change into evacuees. These evacuees are at that moment exhausted (60% by our estimation), drunk or at least tipsy (30%), or disoriented (20%). Most people will not be able

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“…Common to this type of model is the capability to represent the population as a collection of unique interacting individuals, the ability to represent the detail of the space in which the individuals interact (i.e. the model should have a discretised representation of space) and the ability to assign individuals or groups of individuals specific tasks to complete as part of the scenario (see [7,8] for a review of model types). These models produce a wide variety of simulation outputs, such as time to assemble, levels of congestion experienced, time required to undertake specific tasks, number of operations performed in completing specific tasks, distance travelled by individuals in achieving goals, number of likely fatalities resulting from fire, likely injury levels sustained from fire, etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systematic methodology to assess the impact of human factors in ship design

Deere

Galea

Lawrence

2009

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Evaluating ship layout for human factors (HF) issues using simulation software such as maritimeEXODUS can be a long and complex process. The analysis requires the identification of relevant evaluation scenarios; encompassing evacuation and normal operations; the development of appropriate measures which can be used to gauge the performance of crew and vessel and finally; the interpretation of considerable simulation data. Currently, the only agreed guidelines for evaluating HFs performance of ship design relate to evacuation and so conclusions drawn concerning the overall suitability of a ship design by one naval architect can be quite different from those of another. The complexity of the task grows as the size and complexity of the vessel increases and as the number and type of evaluation scenarios considered increases. Equally, it can be extremely difficult for fleet operators to set HFs design objectives for new vessel concepts. The challenge for naval architects is to develop a procedure that allows both accurate and rapid assessment of HFs issues associated with vessel layout and crew operating procedures. In this paper we present a systematic and transparent methodology for assessing the HF performance of ship design which is both discriminating and diagnostic. The methodology is demonstrated using two variants of a hypothetical naval ship.

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A review of the methodologies used in evacuation modelling

Cited by 118 publications

References 8 publications

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Evacuation models and disaster psychology

A systematic methodology to assess the impact of human factors in ship design

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