Evacuation models and disaster psychology

Abstract

In evacuation models of buildings, neighborhoods, areas, cities and countries important psychological parameters are not frequently used. In this paper the relevance of some important variables from disaster psychology will be discussed. Modeling psychological variables will enhance prediction of human behavior during evacuations. John Leach's Dynamic Disaster Model describes three phases and five stages: A Pre-impact phase (Threat Stage and Warning Stage), an Impact phase, and a Post-impact phase (Recoil Stage, Rescue Stage and Post-traumatic Stage). In each phase and stage specific human behavior has been supposed to be a psychological response to a disaster. These responses are remarkably consistent and transferable across kinds of disasters. Evacuation happens during Pre-impact phase, Impact phase and Post-impact phase (Recoil Stage and, or Rescue Stage). People's cognitive and emotional states and overt behavior will be very different across the phases. During the Pre-impact phase risk estimation is very low, so evacuation is not seen as an inevitable action. Heavy stress and denial of life-threatening events during the Impact phase will hinder effective evacuation. Inactivity, apathy and childlike dependency on other people during the Recoil Stage will restrain survivors from active evacuation. Evacuation models will be more effective if phases and accompanying human behavior are taken into account. The Human Factor during evacuation; an exampleIn the south and east of the Netherlands there is a risk of extreme flooding of the river deltas each year during spring. The risk will be greater in the near future, caused by changes of the earth climate, which are currently predicted. The climate change will bring more rain to Europe and the Netherlands. In the same time period there will be Dutch Carnival in the south and east of the Netherlands. During four days a significant part of the community is involved in drinking, eating, singing and dancing day and night. Families are scattered over many places.It is absolutely not inconceivable that an extreme flooding will take place on the last day of the Carnival, a Tuesday. Within hours, the partying people would have to change into evacuees. These evacuees are at that moment exhausted (60% by our estimation), drunk or at least tipsy (30%), or disoriented (20%). Most people will not be able

A spatio-temporal probabilistic model of hazard- and crowd dynamics for evacuation planning in disasters

“…In brief, these have been widely scrutinized from different fields of study. Social-psychological studies are for instance highly qualitative in their approach [18][19][20][21], while studies based on physics and mathematics introduce quantitative concepts such as motion, force, and velocity to model crowd attributes, expressed as mathematical models [10,[22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Building upon the latter extremes, computer science research provides technology and software for crowd modeling.…”

Demand models in road evacuation: a synopsis of recent contributions

“…Vorst [42] focuses on user behavior in emergency conditions. In evacuation models of buildings, neighbourhoods, areas, cities and countries, important psychological parameters are not frequently used.…”

Integrated travel demand models for evacuations: a bridge between social science and engineering

“…(2) User behavior modifi cation in time This time classifi cation follows that proposed by John Leach's dynamic disaster model, which indicates three phases and fi ve stages during an emergency condition, from which user behavior emerges: a pre-impact phase (Threat Stage and Warning Stage), an impact phase and a post-impact phase (Recoil stage, Rescue stage and Post-traumatic stage), as reported in Vorst [11]. In each phase and stage a specifi c human behavior has been supposed to be a psychological response to a disaster.…”