A Review of Research on the Prediction of Academic Performance After the Freshman Year

Wilson, Kenneth M.

doi:10.1002/j.2330-8516.1983.tb00011.x

Cited by 40 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(94 reference statements)

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“…The SAT score seems to have less predictive power, however, for graduation rates than for grade-based measures. Wilson (1983) reviews similar results.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 63%

College performance predictions and the SAT

Rothstein

2004

Journal of Econometrics

202

158

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The methods used in most SAT validity studies cannot be justified by any sample selection assumptions and are uninformative about the source of the SAT's predictive power. A new omitted variables estimator is proposed; plausibly consistent estimates of the SAT's contribution to predictions of University of California freshman grade point averages are about 20% smaller than the usual methods imply. Moreover, much of the SAT's predictive power is found to derive from its correlation with high school demographic characteristics:The orthogonal portion of SAT scores is notably less predictive of future performance than is the unadjusted score.JEL Classification: C24, C53, I20, J78

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“…The SAT score seems to have less predictive power, however, for graduation rates than for grade-based measures. Wilson (1983) reviews similar results.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 63%

College performance predictions and the SAT

Rothstein

2004

Journal of Econometrics

202

158

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“…Instead, the following discussion highlights several reviews of differential prediction studies over the course of nearly 40 years. In fact, at least nine authors have reviewed differential prediction studies (Breland, 1979; Burton & Ramist, 2001; Cleary, Humphreys, Kendrick, & Wesman, 1975; Duran, 1983; Linn, 1973; Morgan, 1989; Stanley & Porter, 1967; Wilson, 1983; Young, 2001). Most recently, Young reviewed nearly 50 studies that examined differential prediction and/or differential validity in predicting college grades.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Differential Prediction of College Grades by Race/Ethnicity with a Multilevel Model

Culpepper

Davenport

2009

J Educational Measurement

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Previous research notes the importance of understanding racial/ethnic differential prediction of college grades across multiple institutions. Institutional variation in selection indices is especially important given some states’ laws governing public institutions’ admissions decisions. This paper employed multilevel moderated multiple regression to study the variation of selection indices across 30 institutions and the accuracy of selection indices in predicting college grades for students of different racial/ethnic backgrounds. Several benefits of multilevel models for cross‐institutional differential prediction studies were described and include: controlling for institutional differences in range restriction, providing reliability estimates of least squares estimates, and adjusting criterion scores for differences in coursework difficulty. The findings from this study provide evidence of institutional variation in selection indices, which challenges current laws aimed at standardizing them. Specifically, there was evidence that the predictor slope coefficients varied across institutions, in addition to the estimates that measured intercept differences for African and Asian American students. Across universities, the results mirrored previous findings: high school grade point average (GPA) differentially predicted grades for African Americans, SAT verbal scores differentially predict grades for Asian Americans, and SAT math scores were better predictors of Asian Americans’ grades.

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“…Although the relationships of standardized test scores and high school GPA with 1st-year academic performance are well established, their relationships with academic performance beyond the 1st year have received less attention (Wilson, 1983;Zwick, 2006). Recent research by Mattern and Patterson (2011c, 2011d has examined the validity of SAT scores and high school GPA as predictors of undergraduate GPA, both annual and cumulative, through the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of study.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

College Performance and Retention: A Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validities of ACT^®Scores, High School Grades, and SES

Westrick¹,

Robbins

et al. 2015

Educational Assessment

162

103

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This meta-analysis examines the strength of the relationships of ACT w Composite scores, high school grades, and socioeconomic status (SES) with academic performance and persistence into the 2nd and 3rd years at 4-year colleges and universities. Based upon a sample of 189,612 students at 50 institutions, ACT Composite scores and high school grade point average (GPA) are highly correlated with 1st-year academic performance. First-year academic performance emerges as the best predictor of 2nd-and 3rd-year retention. SES is a weak predictor of both academic performance and retention. Moderator analyses of admission selectivity indicate that although the estimated mean validity coefficients for ACT Composite scores and high school GPA vary slightly, the credibility intervals indicate they are valid predictors across levels of admission selectivity. This longitudinal study demonstrates the importance of precollege academic preparation and how success in the 1st year of college strongly influences persistence toward completing a degree.For decades colleges have used test scores, notably the ACT and SAT, and high school grade point average (GPA) as predictors of academic performance and persistence (Zwick, 2006, provided a summary of the research on this topic). Although standardized test scores and high 23 Correspondence should be sent to Paul A. Westrick,

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A Review of Research on the Prediction of Academic Performance After the Freshman Year

Cited by 40 publications

References 50 publications

College performance predictions and the SAT

College performance predictions and the SAT

Assessing Differential Prediction of College Grades by Race/Ethnicity with a Multilevel Model

College Performance and Retention: A Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validities of ACT^®Scores, High School Grades, and SES

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A Review of Research on the Prediction of Academic Performance After the Freshman Year

Cited by 40 publications

References 50 publications

College performance predictions and the SAT

College performance predictions and the SAT

Assessing Differential Prediction of College Grades by Race/Ethnicity with a Multilevel Model

College Performance and Retention: A Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validities of ACT®Scores, High School Grades, and SES

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

College Performance and Retention: A Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validities of ACT^®Scores, High School Grades, and SES