2004
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.10.003
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College performance predictions and the SAT

Abstract: The methods used in most SAT validity studies cannot be justified by any sample selection assumptions and are uninformative about the source of the SAT's predictive power. A new omitted variables estimator is proposed; plausibly consistent estimates of the SAT's contribution to predictions of University of California freshman grade point averages are about 20% smaller than the usual methods imply. Moreover, much of the SAT's predictive power is found to derive from its correlation with high school demographic … Show more

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Cited by 202 publications
(181 citation statements)
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“…This conclusion is supported by research on the prediction of college grades (e.g. Rothstein, 2004;Young, 2001), which generally indicates that white college students outperform black students with the same observed admission credentials at the same colleges. Similar pattern have been found in law schools (Wightman, 2000;Wightman and Muller, 1990;Anthony and Liu, 2003;and Powers, 1977).…”
Section: B Between-race Comparisonsmentioning
confidence: 74%
“…This conclusion is supported by research on the prediction of college grades (e.g. Rothstein, 2004;Young, 2001), which generally indicates that white college students outperform black students with the same observed admission credentials at the same colleges. Similar pattern have been found in law schools (Wightman, 2000;Wightman and Muller, 1990;Anthony and Liu, 2003;and Powers, 1977).…”
Section: B Between-race Comparisonsmentioning
confidence: 74%
“…As can be seen from the above Table 4, stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that Department (B=.308, P<0.05) was the most important predictor of first year college academic performance followed by SAT scores (B=0.111, P<0.05) for all participants [25][26][27]. …”
Section: Correlation Analysismentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With this problem, regression coefficients could still be estimated without bias, but the estimate of R 2 would be inconsistent (Rothstein, 2004). This problem is common in all previous studies that use data from a single university or institute, such as Betts and Morell (1999), Cohn et al (2004), Cornwell, Mustard, and Van Parys (2008), and Jensen and Wu (2010).…”
Section: Sample 1-university Amentioning
confidence: 99%