A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Adloff, F.; Jevrejeva, S.; Leclercq, P. W.; Marzeion, B.; Wada, Y.; Winkelmann, Ricarda

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56490-6_17

Cited by 26 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2013 points out that sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century and beyond, regardless the socio‐economic scenario considered (Church et al, ). Conversely, the magnitude of this rise will largely depend on the coastal site location and on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions (Carson et al, ; Slangen et al, ). Despite few studies suggest that some natural systems such as small coral reef islands are more resilient to SLR (Kench et al, ), unceasing anthropization and SLR acceleration point toward an inescapable increasing risk of coastal hazards (Dangendorf et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low‐lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi‐model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter‐annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind‐waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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“…New research developments illustrate the desirability of considering updating the New York City sea level rise projections in future NPCC assessments. Recent ice sheet trends and improved understanding of ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere interactions raise the prospects of higher sea levels than previously assumed Slangen et al, 2017). The sum of all ice mass losses (Appendix 3.B, Tables 3.B.1-3) constitutes half or more of total sea level rise in recent decades, a proportion likely to increase throughout this century (Nerem et al, 2018;Dieng et al, 2017;Rietbroek et al, 2016).…”

Section: Development Of Arim--a Newmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Since IPCC (2013), new observations from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets (e.g., Rignot et al, 2014), progress in ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean modeling (e.g., Joughin et al, 2014), and expert assessments (Horton et al, 2014;Bamber and Aspinall, 2013) have reaffirmed the physical plausibility of sea level rise well in excess of the IPCC (2013) "likely" range (Jevrejeva et al, 2014;Kopp et al, 2014;Slangen et al, 2017). Newly recognized mechanisms for ice-shelf instability further emphasize the plausibility of high-end outcomes, especially beyond 2100 in high-emission futures (Pollard et al, 2015;DeConto and Pollard, 2016;Kopp et al, 2017;Le Bars et al, 2017;Wong et al, 2017; see also, Section 3.4.2).…”

Section: Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include: (1) ocean density changes (involving temperature and salinity); (2) changes in ocean currents and circulation patterns; (3) ice mass losses from glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets; (4) redistribution of ocean water in response to changes in the Earth's gravitation, rotation, and deformation caused by current ice mass losses (collectively referred to as “fingerprints”); (5) past ice mass losses (i.e., glacial isostatic adjustments, GIA); (6) other vertical land movements caused by ongoing tectonic activity, sediment compaction due to loading, and subsurface extraction of water, oil, gas; and (7) changes in land water storage, for example, in dams or from groundwater mining. Thermal expansion along with losses of ice from mountain glaciers and small ice caps have historically been the major contributors to observed mean global sea level rise, but in recent decades, shrinking ice sheets have played a growing role and dominate in the higher scenarios for future GMSLR (Slangen et al ., , ; Kopp et al ., ; Church et al ., , IPCC AR5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent observations of land ice mass losses and advances in ice sheet–ocean–atmosphere modeling suggest the physical possibility of higher sea levels by 2100 than previously assumed (reviewed in Sweet et al ., ; Slangen et al ., , and briefly in this section), particularly under high‐emission futures (Kopp et al ., ). Although it is premature to assign a probability to such extreme outcomes, in view of the potential for widespread infrastructure and societal impacts from a high‐impact sea level rise in major coastal urban centers, such as New York City (e.g., Hauer et al ., ), we follow the example of the Fourth National Climate Assessment in proposing a new upper‐end sea level rise scenario that includes the possibility of Antarctic Ice Sheet destabilization (Section 3.6).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise

Gornitz

Oppenheimer

Kopp

et al. 2019

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Temporal Variations of the Marine Geoid

Siegismund¹,

Koehl²,

Rummel³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The effects of temporal changes in the marine geoid on estimates of the ocean dynamic topography are being investigated. Influences from mass redistribution due to changes of land hydrology, ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and ocean and atmospheric dynamics are considered, and the associated crustal deformation is included. The strongest signals are associated with the seasonal cycle caused by changes in terrestrial water storage and ice sheets as well as the redistribution of atmospheric mass. Second to this is the importance of an overall trend caused by GIA and decreasing ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica. On long spatial scales, the amplitude of regional trends estimated for the geoid height has a sizable fraction of those from sea level anomaly (SLA) for the period 1993-2016, also after subtraction of steric height of the upper 1,000 m to analyze trends in deep ocean geostrophic currents. The estimated strong negative geoid height trend south of Greenland for the period 1993-2016 opposes changes in dynamic sea level for the same period thereby affecting past studies on changes of both the strength of the subpolar gyre based on SLA and the meridional overturning circulation on a section between Cape Farewell and Portugal applying ocean dynamic topography and hydrography. We conclude that temporal geoid height trends should be considered in studies of (multi)decadal trends in sea level and circulation on large spatial scales based on altimetry data referenced to a geoid field.Plain Language Summary Changes in ocean surface currents are routinely obtained from satellite altimetry data. A correction for changes in the geoid, the equipotential surface of gravity closest to sea level, is considered small and thus usually neglected. We investigate temporal geoid height changes and potential implications on ocean circulation studies using space-borne gravity data and results from ocean and atmosphere models to discover the individual processes of mass redistribution in the climate system causing thereby changes in the geoid height. We found the largest signals in the seasonal cycle for terrestrial hydrology in the Amazone basin and in negative trends for the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets. For the period 1993-2016 and on spatial scale larger than 1,000 km or so the magnitude of the negative marine geoid height trend south of Greenland is similar to the strength of the negative trend in geocentric sea level from altimetry. This outcome affects past studies on changes in the strength of the subpolar gyre and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation that neglect geoid height variations. We conclude that temporal geoid height trends should be considered in studies of (multi)decadal trends in sea level and circulation on large spatial scales based on altimetry data.

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A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Cited by 26 publications

References 10 publications

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise

Temporal Variations of the Marine Geoid

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