A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

Abstract

This paper reviews China's future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China's total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.

Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective

“…Kong et al (2016) studied the standard EROI of oil and gas from 1996 to 2015. Wang et al (2017a) reviewed the physical fossil fuels supply and associated EROI. Kong, Dong and Jiang (2018a) analyzed EROI for oil and gas exploration and light oil products.…”

Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition

“…Lior [54] determined the exergy and energy returns on investment of an hydro-fractured shale gas well. Wang et al [55] reviewed the physical supply and projections of EROI of fossil fuels in China, including natural gas. Wang et al [56] developed a hybrid lifecycle inventory model to estimate the EROI of shale gas development for China.…”

Study on Influencing Factors of Water Huff-n-Puff Oil Recovery in Matrix-Fracture Systems of the Tight Sedimentary Tuff Reservoirs

“…With the continuous depletion of conventional oil and gas resources and the huge demand for oil and gas resources due to rapid economic development, the exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources have become more and more important. − In recent years, the Tuha oilfield has conducted a lot of geological exploration and oil and gas testing in the Santanghu Basin in northeastern Xinjiang, China, and finally discovered a new type of tight oil reservoirs, called tight sedimentary tuff reservoirs (TSTRs). − The formation of TSTRs is closely related to volcanic eruption and lake-basin deposition of volcanic ash. The exploration and development results show that TSTRs are significantly different from conventional tight oil reservoirs in terms of the reservoir-forming model, lithology, physical properties, and fluid properties. − …”

“…For example, the quantitative relationship between FD and RF, oil recovery efficiency (ORE), and flow-back rate (FR) of the injected water. (5) The reasons for the low FR of the injected water in WHP have not been comprehensively explained. The above five problems seriously restrict the optimization and improvement of WHP oil recovery in tight oil reservoirs, which must be deeply studied.…”