2011
DOI: 10.1007/s10346-011-0282-8
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A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada

Abstract: Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-… Show more

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Cited by 85 publications
(56 citation statements)
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“…This is due to the intrinsic difficulty of finding historical data sets of rainstorms and corresponding landslides occurring in a small area, with enough data to allow reliable estimation of the probability of landslide triggering during extreme (and thus rare) rainfall events. Usually, only a few landslides occur at a site during an observation period of typically some decades, so that probabilistic landslide initiation thresholds are mostly defined at regional scale, so as to have a rich data set of observed landslides (e.g., Terlien, 1998;Guzzetti et al, 2007;Jakob et al, 2012;Ponziani et al, 2012;Segoni et al, 2015;Iadanza et al, 2016). The use of physically based models of infiltration and slope stability can help in the prediction of slope response under conditions different from those actually encountered during the observation period, thus allowing the definition of site-specific landslide initiation thresholds (e.g., Arnone et al, 2011;Ruiz-Villanueva et al, 2011;Tarolli et al, 2011;Papa et al, 2013;Peres and Cancelliere, 2014;Posner and Georgakakos, 2015;Greco and Bogaard, 2016), which can be useful for carrying out stochastic predictions.…”
Section: Stochastic Approachmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is due to the intrinsic difficulty of finding historical data sets of rainstorms and corresponding landslides occurring in a small area, with enough data to allow reliable estimation of the probability of landslide triggering during extreme (and thus rare) rainfall events. Usually, only a few landslides occur at a site during an observation period of typically some decades, so that probabilistic landslide initiation thresholds are mostly defined at regional scale, so as to have a rich data set of observed landslides (e.g., Terlien, 1998;Guzzetti et al, 2007;Jakob et al, 2012;Ponziani et al, 2012;Segoni et al, 2015;Iadanza et al, 2016). The use of physically based models of infiltration and slope stability can help in the prediction of slope response under conditions different from those actually encountered during the observation period, thus allowing the definition of site-specific landslide initiation thresholds (e.g., Arnone et al, 2011;Ruiz-Villanueva et al, 2011;Tarolli et al, 2011;Papa et al, 2013;Peres and Cancelliere, 2014;Posner and Georgakakos, 2015;Greco and Bogaard, 2016), which can be useful for carrying out stochastic predictions.…”
Section: Stochastic Approachmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is more common to use warning and forecasting approaches such as simple rainfall triggers to provide regional information (e.g. Jakob et al 2012;Martelloni et al 2012;Lagomarsino et al 2013). However, these cannot be used to give meaningful, and hence credible, site-specific warnings, with regional warnings liable to be misinterpreted and/or ignored by communities.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…At regional scale, warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides are mainly based on empirical rainfall thresholds (Keefer et al, 1987;Aleotti, 2004;Hong et al, 2005;Tiranti and Rabuffetti, 2010;Baum and Godt, 2010;Capparelli and Tiranti, 2010;Cannon et al, 2011;Floris et al, 2012;Jakob et al, 2012;Staley et al, 2013;Lagomarsino et al, 2013;Tiranti et al, 2014;Cucchi et al, 2015). A broad literature exists on empirical rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides (Guzzetti et al, 2007, and references therein), and intensity-duration (I -D) thresholds are the most popular (Caine, 1980;Guzzetti et al, 2008;and references therein).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%