A Regional Application of Bayesian Modeling for Coastal Erosion and Sand Nourishment Management

Giardino, Alessio; Diamantidou, Eleni; Pearson, Stuart; Santinelli, Giorgio; Heijer, Kees den

doi:10.3390/w11010061

Cited by 16 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The effect of nourishments might be especially relevant for the Dutch coast considering the large number of nourishments that are applied along the coast 42 , 43 . Specifically, previous research has related nourishments to a reduction of transects with landward dune toe movement 44 . Additionally, alongshore transport could also influence the dune toe development, but these influences are minor on the national scale.…”

Section: Vertical Dune Toe Translation 7–8 Times Faster Than Slrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts

IJzendoorn

Vries

Hallin

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Sea level is rising due to climate change and is expected to influence the development and dynamics of coastal dunes. However, the anticipated changes to coastal dunes have not yet been demonstrated using field data. Here, we provide evidence of dune translation that is characterized by a linear increase of the dune toe elevation on the order of 13–15 mm/year during recent decades along the Dutch coast. This rate of increase is a remarkable 7–8 times greater than the measured sea level rise. The observed vertical dune toe translation coincides with seaward movement of the dune toe (i.e., progradation), which shows similarities to prograding coasts in the Holocene both along the Dutch coast and elsewhere. Thus, we suspect that other locations besides the Dutch coast might also show such large ratios between sea level rise and dune toe elevation increase. This phenomenon might significantly influence the expected impact of sea level rise and climate change adaptation measures.

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Section: Vertical Dune Toe Translation 7–8 Times Faster Than Slrmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts

IJzendoorn

Vries

Hallin

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…Giardino et al . (2019) also used a Bayesian network to model coastal erosion and beach nourishment in the Netherlands. The nodes in their network included variables such as nourishment type and volume, and rates of change in coastline position and dunes.…”

Section: Worked Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian geomorphology

Korup

2020

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Summary The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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“…Giardino et al [27] presented an implementation and application of the Bayesian belief network (BBN) for coastal erosion management at the regional scale along the entire Holland coast. The effects of different sand nourishment designs on two pre-identified coastal indicators (i.e., dune foot and momentary coastline position) were assessed at 604 cross-shore transects and spanning a period of over 50 years.…”

Section: Coastal Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Vulnerability and Mitigation Strategies: From Monitoring to Applied Research

Contestabile

Vicinanza

2020

Water

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This paper intends to offer the readers an overview of the Special Issue on Coastal Vulnerability and Mitigation Strategies: From Monitoring to Applied Research. The main focus of this Special Issue is to provide the state-of-the-art and the recent research updates on the sustainable management strategies for protecting vulnerable coastal areas. Based on 28 contributions from authors from 17 different countries (Australia, China, Ecuador, Germany, Greece, India, Italy, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates, UK, USA), an ensemble of interdisciplinary articles has been collected, emphasizing the importance of tackling technical and scientific problems at different scales and from different point of views.

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A Regional Application of Bayesian Modeling for Coastal Erosion and Sand Nourishment Management

Cited by 16 publications

References 34 publications

Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts

Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts

Bayesian geomorphology

Coastal Vulnerability and Mitigation Strategies: From Monitoring to Applied Research

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