A Record of Large Earthquakes on the Southern Hayward Fault for the Past 500 Years

Lienkaemper, James J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Personius, Stephen F.; Seitz, Gordon G.; Reidy, Liam; Schwartz, David P.

doi:10.1785/0120000611

Cited by 51 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Scarp retreat represents a punctuated event in time and is considered diagnostic of coseismic displacement at the trench scale (e.g., McCalpin et al 2009). In contrast, steadier fault creep at the ground surface would result in gradual deposition of finer colluvium at the base of the scarp that thickens away from the fault zone (Lienkaemper et al 2002), akin to growth strata deposited along the flanks of an actively growing fold. We therefore consider the rubbly colluvial deposits encountered in our trench as direct evidence for scarp retreat driven by past surface-rupturing earthquakes.…”

Section: Characterisation Of Past Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Palaeoseismic constraints on Holocene surface ruptures along the Ostler Fault, southern New Zealand

Amos¹,

Lapwood²,

Nobes³

et al. 2011

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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Palaeoseismic trenching along the central Ostler fault zone reveals the nature and timing of past surface-rupturing earthquakes. A 26 m long trench excavated into a last-glacial (26.5 ka) outwash surface cut by the Ruataniwha strand of the North Central Ostler fault reveals evidence for at least two metre-scale surface displacements in the last c. 8 ka. Detailed logging of colluvial wedge and alluvial stratigraphy, combined with optically stimulated luminescence dating of loess within colluvial packages, provides a maximum bound on the most recent earthquake (MRE) of 2.3Á/4.5 ka. The MRE resulted in a surface displacement of at least 1.8 m, consistent with an estimated moment magnitude (M) 6.9Á/7.1 earthquake based on the total 60 km length of the Ostler fault zone. The penultimate event occurred sometime before 4.1Á/8.4 ka and resulted in a comparable or larger surface displacement. Similar ages from samples collected in previous trenches on the Ostler fault suggest that surface ruptures may persist across kilometre-scale stepovers defined by the active surface trace of the fault. At the trench scale, comparison between dip slip calculated from topographic fault-scarp profiling (7.8 m) and the total offset of exposed outwash gravels (6.0 m) suggests that surface folding immediately adjacent to the fault scarp accommodates roughly 25% of the total slip. Given a previously reported recurrence interval of c. 2Á/5 ka for the Ostler fault, the presence of only 2Á/3 palaeoearthquakes on the 26.5 ka outwash surface indicates that additional events likely occurred on nearby fault scarps in an overall complex zone of surface faulting.

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Section: Characterisation Of Past Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Palaeoseismic constraints on Holocene surface ruptures along the Ostler Fault, southern New Zealand

Amos¹,

Lapwood²,

Nobes³

et al. 2011

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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“…Last, excavations of the southern Hayward fault at Tyson's Lagoon [Lienkaemper et al, 2002] reveal evidence for at least three paleoseismic events over the past millennium. While uncertainty ranges for paleoseismic dating can be fairly large, we do our best to adhere to the results of experts in the field and estimate prehistorical earthquake dates, locations, and rupture extents based on their findings (Table 3).…”

Section: Prehistorical Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas Fault System for the past 1000 years

Smith

Sandwell

2006

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] We simulate 1000 years of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas Fault System by convolving best estimates of interseismic and coseismic slip with the Green's function for a point dislocation in an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half-space. Interseismic slip rate is based on long-term geological estimates while fault locking depths are derived from horizontal GPS measurements. Coseismic and postseismic deformation is modeled using 70 earthquake ruptures, compiled from both historical data and paleoseismic data. This time-dependent velocity model is compared with 290 present-day geodetic velocity vectors to place bounds on elastic plate thickness and viscosity of the underlying substrate. Best fit models (RMS residual of 2.46 mm/yr) require an elastic plate thickness greater than 60 km and a substrate viscosity between 2 Â 10 18 and 5 Â 10 19 Pa s. These results highlight the need for vertical velocity measurements developed over long time spans (>20 years). Our numerical models are also used to investigate the 1000-year evolution of Coulomb stress. Stress is largely independent of assumed rheology, but is very sensitive to the slip history on each fault segment. As expected, present-day Coulomb stress is high along the entire southern San Andreas because there have been no major earthquakes over the past 150-300 years. Animations S1 and S2 of the time evolution of vector displacement and Coulomb stress are available as auxiliary material.

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“…Nevertheless, the scarp colluvium features and fissure fills used by Lienkaemper et al (2002) and Lienkaemper and Williams (2007) to identify 12 earthquakes at Tyson's Lagoon in the past 1900 years appear to be consistent with formation by coseismic slip. Cracks and fissures generated by rapid afterslip following the 1987 M w 6.6 Superstition Hills earthquake ) exhibit similar traits, so rapid afterslip may have contributed to the geomorphic features observed at Tyson's Lagoon.…”

Section: Coseismic Slipmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…above the median value fall in the range of 0.2-1.1 m at site HAPP. Coseismic slip in this range combined with early, very rapid afterslip could generate the scarp colluvium and fissure fills observed by Lienkaemper et al (2002) and Lienkaemper and Williams (2007).…”

Section: Coseismic Slipmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Paleoseismic studies of the Hayward fault, for example, Lienkaemper et al (1999), Lienkaemper et al (2002, and Lienkaemper and Williams (2007), do not provide estimates of the slip per event to which we can compare our coseismic slip estimates. Nevertheless, the scarp colluvium features and fissure fills used by Lienkaemper et al (2002) and Lienkaemper and Williams (2007) to identify 12 earthquakes at Tyson's Lagoon in the past 1900 years appear to be consistent with formation by coseismic slip.…”

Section: Coseismic Slipmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Estimates of Surface Coseismic Slip and Afterslip for Hayward Fault Earthquakes

Aagaard

Lienkaemper

Schwartz

2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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We examine the partition of long-term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the coseismic slip distribution as well as the variability in locations of large and small slip patches and the magnitude of an earthquake for a given rupture area. We calibrate the estimates to be consistent with the ratio of interseismic creep rate at the alinement array sites to the geologic slip rate for the Hayward fault. We find that the coseismic slip at the surface is expected to comprise only a small fraction of the long-term geologic slip. The median values of coseismic slip are less than 0.2 m in nearly all cases as a result of the influence of interseismic creep and afterslip. However, afterslip makes a substantial contribution to the long-term geologic slip and may be responsible for up to 0.5-1.5 m (median plus one standard deviation [S.D.]) of additional slip following an earthquake rupture. Thus, utility and transportation infrastructure could be severely impacted by afterslip in the hours and days following a large earthquake on the Hayward fault that generated little coseismic slip. Inherent spatial variability in earthquake slip combined with the uncertainty in how interseismic creep affects coseismic slip results in large uncertainties in these slip estimates.

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A Record of Large Earthquakes on the Southern Hayward Fault for the Past 500 Years

Cited by 51 publications

References 22 publications

Palaeoseismic constraints on Holocene surface ruptures along the Ostler Fault, southern New Zealand

Palaeoseismic constraints on Holocene surface ruptures along the Ostler Fault, southern New Zealand

A model of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas Fault System for the past 1000 years

Probabilistic Estimates of Surface Coseismic Slip and Afterslip for Hayward Fault Earthquakes

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