A record-breaking low ice cover over the Great Lakes during winter 2011/2012: combined effects of a strong positive NAO and La Niña

Bai, Xuezhi; Wang, Jia; Austin, Jay A.; Schwab, David J.; Assel, Raymond A.; Clites, Anne H.; Bratton, John F.; Colton, Marie C.; Lenters, John D.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Wohlleben, Trudy; Helfrich, S.; Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Luo, Lin; Leshkevich, George

doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2225-2

Cited by 18 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The overall pattern prohibited movement of Arctic air mass into the mid-latitudes and enhanced southerly flow and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes region. Similar observations were made by Bai et al [19] for this region. This generated record warmer and wetter seasonal values, such as 4 °C above the mean seasonal temperature in winter.…”

Section: Occurrence Strengths and Impacts Of Climate Oscillationssupporting

confidence: 79%

“…In the Great Lakes region, past studies have shown that both eastern and western oscillations influence the local climate and these impacts are stronger in winter season [17][18][19]. Each year, four possible conditions can occur depending on the strength of the various oscillations over the winter season: (1) only one strong oscillation occurring for that winter, overpowering all other oscillations; (2) two or more strong oscillations; (3) strong oscillation(s) combined with regional effects (such as lake effect) and (4) only weak to neutral phases of these oscillations, where regional effects are more noticeable.…”

Section: Long-term Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each oscillation has its own level of strength and the occurrence of more than one strong oscillation can complicate how the local climate responds (e.g. [19,60]). As the correlation between climate indices and seasonal variables show a stronger connection to the winter, this section will only focus on winter climate response to climate oscillation.…”

Section: Occurrence Strengths and Impacts Of Climate Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, during the winter months, these oscillations can impact the presence or absence of ice cover in the Great Lakes [19,20], which are known to have significant effects on both regional climate and weather events [20]. These changes in regional climate may have an impact on the growth and carbon uptake in vegetation ecosystems, in particular forest ecosystems, which are re-establishing in this region as re-growth on abandoned agricultural lands or plantations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of Low Frequency Variability on Climate and Carbon Fluxes in a Temperate Pine Forest in Eastern Canada

Thorne

Arain

2015

Forests

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Carbon, water and energy exchanges between forests and the atmosphere depend upon seasonal dynamics of both temperature and precipitation, which are influenced by low frequency climate oscillations such as: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA). This study investigated the influence of climate oscillations on the local climate and carbon fluxes in a 75-year old temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Analyses indicated mean winter temperatures were correlated to NAO, AO and EPO, total winter precipitation was influenced by PNA and AO, while total snowfall was correlated with PNA and ENSO. These impacts influenced carbon dynamics of the forest during the winter and spring seasons. The EPO had a significant inverse correlation with winter and spring carbon fluxes, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was significantly correlated with winter respiration. In 2012, an extreme warm event linked to climate oscillations raised temperatures and resulted in a large release of carbon from the forest due to higher ecosystem respiration. As low frequency climate oscillations are important drivers of extreme weather events, affecting their intensity, frequency and spatial patterns, they can cause large changes in carbon exchanges in forest ecosystems in the northeastern parts of North America. OPEN ACCESSForests 2015, 6 2763

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Section: Occurrence Strengths and Impacts Of Climate Oscillationssupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Long-term Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Occurrence Strengths and Impacts Of Climate Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of Low Frequency Variability on Climate and Carbon Fluxes in a Temperate Pine Forest in Eastern Canada

Thorne

Arain

2015

Forests

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“…On Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron, the first, third, and fourth largest lakes on Earth by surface area [ Gronewold et al , ], measurements of maximum ice extent and late spring ice cover either exceeded or were extremely close to those dating back to 1972 [ Wang et al , ]. These conditions were unexpected because the Great Lakes have experienced high surface water temperatures [ Austin and Colman , ; Van Cleave et al , ] and below average ice cover since the late 1990s, including record low ice cover in early 2012 [ Bai et al , ]. The beginning of this warm period coincided with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño [ Chandra et al , ; Assel , ; McPhaden , ] and also marked the beginning of an altered hydrologic regime on the Great Lakes characterized by high over‐lake evaporation rates [ Assel et al , ; Gronewold et al , ] that propagated into persistent below average water levels including record lows set on Lake Superior in 2007 and on Lakes Michigan and Huron in 2012 and 2013 [ Gronewold and Stow , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Gronewold

Anderson

Lofgren

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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Since the late 1990s, the Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced persistent low water levels and above average over‐lake evaporation rates. During the winter of 2013–2014, the lakes endured the most persistent, lowest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history, fostering speculation that over‐lake evaporation rates might decrease and that water levels might rise. To address this speculation, we examined interseasonal relationships in Lake Michigan's thermal regime. We find pronounced relationships between winter conditions and subsequent fall heat content, modest relationships with fall surface temperature, but essentially no correlation with fall evaporation rates. Our findings suggest that the extreme winter conditions of 2013–2014 may have induced a shift in Lake Michigan's thermal regime and that this shift coincides with a recent (and ongoing) rise in Great Lakes water levels. If the shift persists, it could (assuming precipitation rates remain relatively constant) represent a return to thermal and hydrologic conditions not observed on Lake Michigan in over 15 years.

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Ice processes on medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes

Ariano

Brown

2019

Hydrological Processes

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Lake ice supports a range of socio-economic and cultural activities including transportation and winter recreational actives. The influence of weather patterns on ice-cover dynamics of temperate lakes requires further understanding for determining how changes in ice composition will impact ice safety and the range of ecosystem services provided by seasonal ice cover. An investigation of lake ice formation and decay for three lakes in Central Ontario, Canada, took place over the course of two winters, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, through the use of outdoor digital cameras, a ShallowWater Ice Profiler (upward-looking sonar), and weekly field measurements. Temperature fluctuations across 0°C promoted substantial early season white ice growth, with lesser amounts of black ice forming later in the season. Ice thickening processes observed were mainly through meltwater, or midwinter rain, refreezing on the ice surface. Snow redistribution was limited, with frequent melt events limiting the duration of fresh snow on the ice, leading to a fairly uniform distribution of white ice across the lakes in 2015-2016 (standard deviations week to week ranging from 3 to 5 cm), but with slightly more variability in 2016-2017 when more snow accumulated over the season (5 to 11 cm). White ice dominated the end-of-season ice composition for both seasons representing more than 70% of the total ice thickness, which is a stark contrast to Arctic lake ice that is composed mainly of black ice. This research has provided the first detailed lake ice processes and conditions from medium-sized north-temperate lakes and provided important information on temperate region lake ice characteristics that will enhance the understanding of the response of temperate lake ice to climate and provide insight on potential changes to more northern ice regimes under continued climate warming. KEYWORDS ice thickness, lake ice, Shallow Water Ice Profiler, snow cover, temperate region 1 | INTRODUCTION Global lake abundance is highest for latitudes 45-75°N (Verpoorter, Kutser, Seekell, & Tranvik, 2014), resulting in lakes comprising a large portion of the Northern Hemisphere. In some regions, lakes are estimated to represent up to 40% of the total surface area (Duguay et al., 2003). Research investigating the response of ice phenology to climate change is important for understanding the role lakes play in surface-atmosphere interactions (Duguay et al., 2003) and the annual recurrence of freeze-thaw cycles allows ice phenology to be a useful proxy indicator for climate change (Futter, 2003; Magnuson et al., 2000); both lake ice cover and thickness are considered "Essential Climate Variables" by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS, 2016). Investigation into the spatial and temporal patterns of ice phenology has occurred at a magnitude of spatial scales spanning single lakes to the hemisphere scale. Some recent examples include Cheng ;33:2434-2448. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/hyp et al. (2014), who investigate ice thickness and duration for Lake Orajärvi in nor...

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A record-breaking low ice cover over the Great Lakes during winter 2011/2012: combined effects of a strong positive NAO and La Niña

Cited by 18 publications

References 53 publications

Influence of Low Frequency Variability on Climate and Carbon Fluxes in a Temperate Pine Forest in Eastern Canada

Influence of Low Frequency Variability on Climate and Carbon Fluxes in a Temperate Pine Forest in Eastern Canada

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Ice processes on medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes

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