A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

Adams, Richard M.; Fleming, Ronald A.; Chang, Ching-Chang; McCarl, Bruce A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

doi:10.1007/bf01091839

Cited by 206 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Using projections of economic development over the next century, global warming IAMs can make predictions of future greenhouse gas concentrations (Crosson and Rosenburg, 1993;Adams et al, 1995;Rosenzweig and Parry, 1993). Among the studies that assessed vulnerability of agricultural production and food security to CC in Africa are Yates and Strzepek (1998), Downing (1992), Benson and Clay (1998), Desanker (2002), Fischer and Van Velthuizen (1996), Thornton et al (2006), Onyeji and Fischer (1994).…”

Section: Observed Climate Change Patterns and Impacts On African Agrimentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Hassan

2010

Journal of African Economies

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The paper analyzed how climate change (CC) has shaped African agriculture in the past and how it might impact on African farm economies in the future and what adaptation strategies African farmers have adopted to cope with these changes. The analyses covered all key farming systems and agro-climates of Africa in 11 countries in which data was collected from over 10,000 farm household surveys. Results provided evidence that African agriculture and the welfare of its rural population are vulnerable to CC. The highest risk of future CC damages is associated with specialized crop and livestock farming (mono systems) particularly under dryland conditions in arid and semi-arid regions. This indicates how difficult it is to achieve an African green revolution under the current high reliance on dryland systems (more than 95% of the land) given predicted harsh future climates (warmer and dryer projections) for most of the dryland areas in PreambleNo doubt our level of awareness and understanding of the climate change (CC) phenomena and their impacts on our planet earth and its inhabitants have significantly improved over the past two decades. There has also been growing attention to and concerns about the consequences of climate change among almost all governments in the world. We remain however with some key uncertainties and gaps of knowledge associated with the complex dynamics between CC, its anthropogenic (human activity) drivers and life on earth including human wellbeing presenting major challenges to present day science and policy making. This is particularly the case in developing countries where efforts and investment levels in scientific research and action programs to better understand and respond to CC continue to be low and the capacity to survive CC vagaries and take advantage of its potential benefits remains consequently very weak.Africa and especially its farming communities and rural population stand out as one clear case of very high vulnerability to CC and its variance.The Synthesis Report of the forth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains how hard it is to find evidence of negative consequences of CC on the world agricultural productivity in aggregate agricultural statistics. One reason is the positive gains from global warming observed in the temperate regions (e.g. North America and Europe) due to reduced risk of frost and longer growing season duration.The other important reason is the fact that world agriculture in general but particularly in temperate regions had witnessed noticeable increases in productivity of most crops as a result of major technological advances (breeding and improved fertility and pest and disease management) (IPCC, 2007 (IPCC, 2007a). This is due to the fact that African economies and the livelihoods of its population are highly dependant on agriculture which is mainly practiced in already harsh climatic conditions (e.g. high temperature, marginal environments, and considerable water stress). It is also important to note tha...

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Section: Observed Climate Change Patterns and Impacts On African Agrimentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Hassan

2010

Journal of African Economies

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“…For the region as a whole, climate changes had an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 30% over current levels (Southworth et al 2002a). The yield-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO 2 are an important determinant of potential economic consequences (Adams et al 1995).…”

Section: Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Wuebbles

Hayhoe

2004

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

136

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Abstract. Environmental and societal factors such as air quality, water quality and availability, land use changes and expanding urbanization are already affecting human health and welfare, agriculture, and natural ecosystems in the Midwestern United States. Over this century, these existing stresses will likely be exacerbated by climate changes resulting from human activities. It is essential that policy decisions aimed at preserving the well-being of a region be informed by a good understanding of the region's climate, how climate might change, and the uncertainties inherent in future projections. Recent updates in climate modeling expertise and an expanded view of possible non-intervention emission scenarios have narrowed the range of change that can be expected over the Midwest throughout the next century in some ways, while broadening it in others. In contrast to previous studies, which generally consider a mid-range scenario for future emissions, this study presents the range of change that would result from low to high scenarios for climate change. In this way we account for uncertainties in anthropogenic forcing on climate change in the region and quantify the potential effects of human actions on future climate. This analysis also combines the latest climate model projections with historical records of observed climate over the past century, effectively placing potential changes in extreme event frequencies such as heavy rainfall events and temperature threshold exceedances within the context of observed variability over the past century. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated picture of the potential impacts of climate change on the Midwest to inform the impact assessment and policy development community. From the magnitude of the changes projected by this study, it is clear that these must be included in future policy decisions in order to ensure the successful adaptation and survival of existing human and natural systems in the Midwest.

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“…Most analyses of climate change impact on U.S. agriculture are based on crop model simulations for one or more of the major world food crops such as wheat (Triticum aestivum) (e.g., Adams et al 1995), field corn (maize, Z. mays var. indenta), soybean (Glycine max), and in some cases, potato (Solanum tuberosum) (e.g., Reilly 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Wolfe

Ziska

Petzoldt

et al. 2007

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

110

100

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Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frostfree) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change (2008) indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost-or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.

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A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

Cited by 206 publications

References 9 publications

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Implications of Climate Change for Agricultural Sector Performance in Africa: Policy Challenges and Research Agenda

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

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