A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

Abstract

Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature-supported, up-to-date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper-end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all 'unused' grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40-110 EJ yr À1 . Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long-term total biomass availability is 60-120 EJ yr À1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10-20 EJ yr À1 of biofuel, 20-40 EJ yr À1 of electricity, and 10-30 EJ yr À1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.

Pathways to Shape the Bioeconomy

“…Various authors have reviewed the analytical steps and assumptions made in the available studies on biomass potentials (e.g., [54,[59][60][61]). They identified several key factors that have a significant impact on the results, such as future productivity in agricultural production, water limitations, amount of degraded and marginal land incorporated in the calculations, nature conservation and biodiversity requirements, population growth and food demand, expectations about dietary trends, and the development of alternative sources of protein that shift consumption away from animal products.…”

“…They identified several key factors that have a significant impact on the results, such as future productivity in agricultural production, water limitations, amount of degraded and marginal land incorporated in the calculations, nature conservation and biodiversity requirements, population growth and food demand, expectations about dietary trends, and the development of alternative sources of protein that shift consumption away from animal products. The key factors also include agricultural commodity prices and the cost of biomass production, political instabilities in producer countries, the availability of biogenic residues and wastes, and competing uses [54,59,61]. The effects of different assumptions about these factors are well illustrated by Dornburg et al [54].…”

Estimation of Bioenergy Potential for Local Biomass in the United Arab Emirates

“…By 2050 the world's energy demand is expected to rise to 600-1000 EJ/yr; sustainable biomass utilization can provide 200-500 EJ/yr (IEA Bioenergy, 2009). A recent analysis of current polices and future development trends predicted bioenergy share of 40-110 EJ/yr in 2050 (Searle and Malins, 2015), which is lower than the potential estimated by IEA. In the future energy market, to meet the GHG mitigation challenge, it is crucial to increase the contribution of biofuels.…”

“…Given the wide availability of potential lignocellulosic feedstock, it is possible to envision a future in which gasoline and diesel are partially replaced by a second generation biofuels. Searle and Malins (2015) predicted a potential biofuel production of 10-20 EJ/yr by 2050.…”

Sustainable Production of Bioenergy Feedstock from the Industrial Forest: Potential and Challenges of Operational Scale Implementation

“…Intense management of a highproductivity crop must be done in a way that maintains ecosystem services of managed forests. Operational plantings across feedstocks show much less yield than plot trials predict [70]; this discrepancy between modeled and actual supply could harm food and bioenergy markets and threaten plans for renewable fuel [71]. Identifying and addressing the benefits and challenges of forest-based biomass feedstock systems will help ensure renewable fuel supply for our future.…”