A Real-Time Hurricane Surface Wind Forecasting Model: Formulation and Verification

Abstract

A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane forecast guidance for prognostic modeling; and 3) assimilating the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) real-time buoy data into the model’s initial wind field. The method is validated using all 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. The results show that 6- and 12-h forecast winds using the asymmetric hurricane wind model are statistically more accurate than using a symmetric wind model. Detailed case studies were conducted for four historical hurricanes, namely, Floyd (1999), Gordon (2000), Lily (2002), and Isabel (2003). Although the asymmetric model performed generally better than the symmetric model, the improvement in hurricane wind forecasts produced by the asymmetric model varied significantly for different storms. In some cases, optimizing the symmetric model using observations available at initial time and forecast mean radius of maximum wind can produce comparable wind accuracy measured in terms of rms error of wind speed. However, in order to describe the asymmetric structure of hurricane winds, an asymmetric model is needed.

Towards the Development of an Operational Forecast System for the Florida Coast

“…The system can use a variety of wind fields as well as several synthetic parametric models. The 2D implementation uses the parametric model of Xie et al [37]. Model parameters such as location of the storm, maximum wind, and radii to 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt winds are based on the NHC predicted storm parameters.…”

Modelling risk hurricane elements in potentially affected areas by a GIS system

“…Even if the axisymmetric is rare, it is possible to introduce deviation from that geometry in a simple way: for example dividing the wind fields into quadrants. Following the idea proposed in Bao et al (2006) we computed the wind field, for each single quadrant, from the maximum sustained wind observed (Xie et al 2006) and reported in the NHC website (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov">http://seamless.usgs.gov. In this analysis we have used the SRTM data version 2.…”

“…Following the idea proposed in Bao et al (2006) we computed the wind field, for each single quadrant, from the maximum sustained wind observed (Xie et al 2006) and reported in the NHC website (http:// www.nhc.noaa.gov).…”

“…Taramelli et al is well known that hurricane hazards are controlled by or dependent on a large and complex set of natural and human induced environmental factors (Howard et al 2003, Shen et al 2005, Pielke et al 2008. To complicate matters further, hurricane related components such as storm surges, floods and high winds, require forecasting appraisal that is often founded upon different methods, techniques and tools (Jiang et al 2003, Bao et al 2006. There is a general agreement among atmospheric scientists that a warmer world would be a wetter world, with no increase in the number of days with rain, but with more intense rainfall (Saunders 1998, Russel et al 2000.…”

“…The track and the intensity evolution (from NHC) of hurricane Stan, shown in figure 4, are the first inputs to the model as latitute-longitude point features. Then the term intensity evolution of the hurricane event is referred to the temporal variation of the R0 while changes in near-eye wind mean velocity, near-eye diameter, atmospheric pressure are documented to check whether the models storm evolve (Xie et al 2006). In order to estimate the potentially affected areas by high winds we worked through a processing sequence:…”