A rapid review of available evidence on the serial interval and generation time of COVID-19

Griffin, John M.; Collins, Áine B.; Hunt, Kevin; Casey, Miriam; Evoy, David Mc; Byrne, Andrew; McAloon, Conor G.; Barber, Ann; Lane, Elizabeth A.; More, Simon John

doi:10.1101/2020.05.08.20095075

Cited by 41 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Our likelihood function is indeed an approximation assuming that the serial intervals Z i are independent and identically distributed. Although our estimates are in line with those from other studies [4], we cannot be completely sure how much the assumption of independent serial intervals affects our estimates since those studies might involve the same or other statistical issues as well. This simplifying assumption of independent serial intervals is commonly used (e.g.…”

Section: Assumption Of Independent Serial Intervalssupporting

confidence: 60%

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

et al. 2020

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Section: Assumption Of Independent Serial Intervalssupporting

confidence: 60%

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

et al. 2020

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“…While older persons are known to have a significantly higher case mortality rate, we take both parameters to be well approximated by the inverse of the serial interval between successive infections. A recent review gives a range of serial intervals from 3.1 to 7.5 days (Griffin et al 2020). In our base-case analysis, we assume β 1 = β 2 = b = 1/5.5, but vary this parameter from b = 1/5 to b = 1/6.…”

Section: Two-group Sir Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults

Harris

2020

Rev Econ Household

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We analyzed the daily incidence of newly reported COVID-19 cases among adults aged 20-39 years, 40-59 years, and 60 or more years in the sixteen most populous counties of the state of Florida from March 1 through June 27, 2020. In all 16 counties, an increase in reported COVID-19 case incidence was observed in all three age groups soon after the governor-ordered Full Phase 1 reopening went into effect. Trends in social mobility, but not trends in testing, track case incidence. Data on hospitalization do not support the hypothesis that the observed increase in case incidence was merely the result of liberalization of testing criteria. Parameter estimates from a parsimonious two-group heterogeneous SIR model strongly support the hypothesis that younger persons, having first acquired their infections through increasing social contact with their peers, then transmitted their infections to older, less socially mobile individuals. Without such cross-infection, an isolated epidemic among older people in Florida would be unsustainable.

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“…The serial interval is the interval between times of onset of symptoms in index and secondary cases. It can be directly measured from the data, and has been extensively studied for COVID-19 (Griffin et al 2020;Nishiura, Linton, and Akhmetzhanov 2020;Du et al 2020;Tindale et al 2020), although it can be affected by several biases (Park et al 2020). It is occasionally negative -when the secondary case develops symptoms before the index case.…”

Section: Time Intervalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The timing of COVID-19 transmission

Ferretti

Ledda

Wymant

et al. 2020

Preprint

127

220

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The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

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A rapid review of available evidence on the serial interval and generation time of COVID-19

Cited by 41 publications

References 29 publications

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults

The timing of COVID-19 transmission

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