The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines ('lock-downs') that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.

The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analysed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines ('lock-downs') that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2 have enabled researchers to monitor its spread, and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals, and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the UK. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high, and a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost, or occasionally fixed, at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity - patterns which are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape variants are likely to arise infrequently, but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

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Next generation sequencing of pooled samples is an effective approach for studies of variability and differentiation in populations. In this paper we provide a comprehensive set of estimators of the most common statistics in population genetics based on the frequency spectrum, namely the Watterson estimator θW, nucleotide pairwise diversity Π, Tajima's D, Fu and Li's D and F, Fay and Wu's H, McDonald-Kreitman and HKA tests and FST, corrected for sequencing errors and ascertainment bias. In a simulation study, we show that pool and individual θ estimates are highly correlated and discuss how the performance of the statistics vary with read depth and sample size in different evolutionary scenarios. As an application, we reanalyse sequences from Drosophila mauritiana and from an evolution experiment in Drosophila melanogaster. These methods are useful for population genetic projects with limited budget, study of communities of individuals that are hard to isolate, or autopolyploid species.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 is its Python interface, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.

BackgroundArtificial selection has caused rapid evolution in domesticated species. The identification of selection footprints across domesticated genomes can contribute to uncover the genetic basis of phenotypic diversity.Methodology/Main FindingsGenome wide footprints of pig domestication and selection were identified using massive parallel sequencing of pooled reduced representation libraries (RRL) representing ∼2% of the genome from wild boar and four domestic pig breeds (Large White, Landrace, Duroc and Pietrain) which have been under strong selection for muscle development, growth, behavior and coat color. Using specifically developed statistical methods that account for DNA pooling, low mean sequencing depth, and sequencing errors, we provide genome-wide estimates of nucleotide diversity and genetic differentiation in pig. Widespread signals suggestive of positive and balancing selection were found and the strongest signals were observed in Pietrain, one of the breeds most intensively selected for muscle development. Most signals were population-specific but affected genomic regions which harbored genes for common biological categories including coat color, brain development, muscle development, growth, metabolism, olfaction and immunity. Genetic differentiation in regions harboring genes related to muscle development and growth was higher between breeds than between a given breed and the wild boar.Conclusions/SignificanceThese results, suggest that although domesticated breeds have experienced similar selective pressures, selection has acted upon different genes. This might reflect the multiple domestication events of European breeds or could be the result of subsequent introgression of Asian alleles. Overall, it was estimated that approximately 7% of the porcine genome has been affected by selection events. This study illustrates that the massive parallel sequencing of genomic pools is a cost-effective approach to identify footprints of selection.