A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen

Matsuo, Yuhji; Endo, Seiya; Nagatomi, Yu; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Komiyama, Ryōichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.187

Cited by 53 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The results also showed that non-RE low-carbon generators compensate for remaining electricity demand not supplied by RE-although there is no consensus regarding promising technology among fossil power plants with CCS, hydrogen, and nuclear power. This result is consistent with findings from studies using a single power dispatch model and a single energy system model (Matsuo et al 2018;Kato and Kurosawa 2019). The common view among the models is that there will be almost no room for the operation of fossil power plants without CCS in 2050.…”

Section: Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 88%

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The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

et al. 2021

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The Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.

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Section: Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Among the participating models, AIM/Hub-Japan and IEEJ_Japan 2017 have such functions (for AIM/Hub-Japan, see Dai et al 2017; for IEEJ_Japan 2017, see Matsuo et al 2020). For more information on system integration cost, see Matsuo and Komiyama (2021).…”

Section: Modeling Of Vre Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

et al. 2021

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“…Although the Japanese government has not formally conducted a quantitative analysis of the proposal, many studies have already examined long-term policy proposals, including economy-wide climate policies (Fujimori et al 2019 ; Kato and Kurosawa 2019 ; Oshiro et al 2019 ; Sugiyama et al 2019 ). Other studies have analyzed power sector policies that feature the significant penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) (Komiyama et al 2015 ; Matsuo et al 2018 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

et al. 2021

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In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

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“…Climate strategies based on power generation from imported hydrogen have been proposed for regions with low local renewable potential, mostly in Japan [105,106]. Additional applications include the possibility of ensuring clean energy supply to remote locations such as mines, port cities or islands with low renewable potential, such as the Arctic region [107].…”

Section: Power Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Green and Blue Hydrogen in the Energy Transition—A Technological and Geopolitical Perspective

et al. 2020

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Hydrogen is currently enjoying a renewed and widespread momentum in many national and international climate strategies. This review paper is focused on analysing the challenges and opportunities that are related to green and blue hydrogen, which are at the basis of different perspectives of a potential hydrogen society. While many governments and private companies are putting significant resources on the development of hydrogen technologies, there still remains a high number of unsolved issues, including technical challenges, economic and geopolitical implications. The hydrogen supply chain includes a large number of steps, resulting in additional energy losses, and while much focus is put on hydrogen generation costs, its transport and storage should not be neglected. A low-carbon hydrogen economy offers promising opportunities not only to fight climate change, but also to enhance energy security and develop local industries in many countries. However, to face the huge challenges of a transition towards a zero-carbon energy system, all available technologies should be allowed to contribute based on measurable indicators, which require a strong international consensus based on transparent standards and targets.

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A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen

Cited by 53 publications

References 49 publications

The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

The Role of Green and Blue Hydrogen in the Energy Transition—A Technological and Geopolitical Perspective

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