EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

Sugiyama, Masahiro; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Wada, Kazumi; Oshiro, Ken; Kato, Etsushi; Komiyama, Ryōichi; Herran, Diego Silva; Matsuo, Yuhji; Shiraki, Hiroto; Ju, Yiyi

doi:10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2

Cited by 37 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Akimoto et al 10 assessed Japan's contribution to the global 2 • C target using the energy system model DNE21+. Sugiyama et al 11 performed a multi-model assessment toward 80% emission reductions by 2050, summarizing robust findings and uncertainties from the model results. Oshiro et al 12 also analyzed Japan's energy system in a 2 • C world using multiple integrated assessment models.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan

Otsuki

Obane

Kawakami

et al. 2022

Electrical Engineering Japan

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study investigated cost‐effective energy strategies for realizing net zero CO2 emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture the intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forests and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights areas, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well‐balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas‐fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia‐fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. The average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle‐of‐the‐road assumptions. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO2 in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO2 in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan

Otsuki

Obane

Kawakami

et al. 2022

Electrical Engineering Japan

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Detailed end-use technologies by models are shown in ESM (Table ESM1 to 4). The more detailed model descriptions are provided in Sugiyama et al (2021).…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We briefly describe the salient aspects of the scenarios that are analyzed in this paper (see Sugiyama et al 2021 for fuller descriptions).…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.

show abstract

“…However, majority of listed local movement has committed to achieve this target since 2019. Therefore, there is still a long way for Japan's local government to come out with fine print of mitigation plans, currently, it still lacks clarity in terms of detailed reduction pathway (Long et al, 2021;Sugiyama, 2020Sugiyama, , 2021.…”

Section: 1029/2021ef002213mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuel‐Specific Carbon Footprint Embodied in Japanese Household Lifestyles

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Currently, households are major emitters of the world's greenhouse gases (GHGs), given the massive amounts of energy that are consumed to fulfill residential demand (Ala-Mantila et al., 2014;Wiedenhofer et al., 2017). In fact, nearly one-third of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, which are the largest component of GHGs, can be attributed to households (Wei et al., 2007). On the other hand, household consumption is complicated, diverse, and highly behavior-driven, which implies that the household sector could be the source of a considerable reduction in GHGs. Taking the household GHG emissions of the United Kingdom as an example, 37% of a future decrease in the UK's emissions can be achieved within its household sector, implying that households consume far more than is needed (Druckman & Jackson, 2010). The large share sees the household sector recognized as the most promising area for meeting various reduction targets. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized, for example, that the modification of household consumption is necessary if the world is to meet the 1.5-degree mitigation target it has set (IPCC, 2014). Similarly, in the intended nationally determined contribution (NDCs) of Japan, the household sector has been called on to decrease nearly 40% of its CO 2 emissions by 2030 in terms of its 2013 levels (UNFCCC, 2015). Given its enormous contribution to GHG emissions, as well as its potential for significantly reducing them, the way that we can best promote household efforts to help climate change mitigation has become a vital issue for most countries across the world (Aune et al., 2016;Shigetomi et al., 2018). However, households are the largest final consumption source, and their consumption is not just measured by direct fuel combustion, but also by the indirect emissions released in the supply chain. As a result, that

show abstract

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

Cited by 37 publications

References 62 publications

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Fuel‐Specific Carbon Footprint Embodied in Japanese Household Lifestyles

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

Cited by 37 publications

References 62 publications

Energy mix for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in Japan

Energy mix for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in Japan

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Fuel‐Specific Carbon Footprint Embodied in Japanese Household Lifestyles

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan

Energy mix for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in Japan