A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania

Abstract

A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective) in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as “high” and the economic consequences were also rated as “high.” Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated “high.” It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place.

Detection and Genome Analysis of a Lineage III Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus in Kenya in 2011

“…It will be interesting to determine whether the southward movement of lineage IV PPRV will displace the predominant lineage III viruses currently in East Africa and, if so, what effect this will have on the spread, incidence and severity of PPRV outbreaks in the region. Indeed, there is an increasing apprehension among the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) that PPRV will spread to other PPR free SADC member states (currently Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Republic of South Africa and Swaziland) potentially devastating the livelihoods and food security of millions of vulnerable smallholder farmers and agropastoralists (Chazya et al., ).…”

History and current status of peste des petits ruminants virus in Tanzania

“…The trend of mixed lineages present in a single country is not unique to Tanzania; other countries, including neighboring Uganda, have also reported this ( 36 ). The risk of further spread outside of Tanzania to neighboring countries, for example, Zambia, is high ( 14 ). Spread has already occurred to the Comoros Islands, a group of volcanic islands located east of Tanzania and Mozambique and northwest of Madagascar ( 37 ).…”

“…The goal was to gain more information, control, and finally eradicate PPR by 2030 in a similar way that was done with rinderpest ( 13 ). The southern border of PPRV distribution in eastern Africa is currently considered to be Tanzania with a high risk of spread further south ( 14 , 15 ). Here, we review the history and the current situation of PPR in Tanzania and the strategies to control and eradicate PPR in Tanzania and neighboring countries.…”

Progress to Control and Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants in the Southern African Development Community Region

“…PPR is now considered endemic in Tanzania in small ruminants with PPR lineages II, III, and IV circulating (11). The disease has spread from Tanzania to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Comoros (12, 13). Around 2012, Angola was infected probably with imported animals from DRC but these outbreaks have not been officially recorded (14).…”

“…Spatial epidemiology can include different types of data layers such as the presence of wildlife populations, roads, density of small ruminants, each weighted by expert knowledge (50). These risk assessments are important to inform policy development, contingency planning, and for allocating scarce resources to high-risk areas within countries (13).…”