A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

Vuuren, Detlef van; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Thomson, Allison M.; Nakićenović, Nebojša; Kram, Tom; Berkhout, Frans; Swart, Rob; Janetos, Anthony C.; Rose, Steven K.; Arnell, Nigel W.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002

Cited by 261 publications

(164 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…As part of the broader 'parallel' scenario process (Moss et al 2010), the scenarios provide a range of new opportunities for integrating alternative socioeconomic and climatic futures for the purposes of local, regional, or sectoral impact analyses and for evaluating possible adaptation and mitigation policies (van Vuuren et al 2012b). In contrast to the SRES storylines and scenarios, the matrix architecture of the new scenarios allows greater flexibility in exploring combinations of socioeconomic and climate futures from multiple alternatives.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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“…Second, the framework should not only focus on quantifiable (model) elements but also be relevant for social sciences, given their importance in the analysis of adaptation and mitigation options (see also Hackmann and Lera St. Clair 2012). Elements of an integrated framework were elaborated earlier by Van Vuuren et al (2012b) and Kriegler et al (2012). In subsequent activities, these elements were further elaborated and integrated into a unified and consistent framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Van Vuuren et al (2012b) and Kriegler et al (2012) proposed that a scenario framework should be based on these factors. Other criteria that are important for a useful scenario framework include that it should be:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

et al. 2013

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This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the Climatic Change (2014( ) 122:373-386 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

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“…An important feature of that vision was the ability to explore a greater variety of socioeconomic development pathways for emissions mitigation and climate impacts and adaptation. To that end Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were created (van Vuuren et al 2011) as a preliminary step to facilitate the creation of a set of climate model calculations, which in principle could be matched with new scenarios sharing the same climate forcing. To link possible socioeconomic development futures with a number of different climate outcomes, assumptions about mitigation and adaptation climate policies are needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Likewise, the existence of a global adaptation fund and international insurance mechanisms against climate change impacts will affect the ability to implement adaptation measures in addition to the challenges to adaption in the SSPs. We therefore ask the question how the SSP 1 We need to distinguish between the four RCPs created for climate model simulations (van Vuuren et al 2011) and climate forcing used more broadly to characterize the rows of the scenario matrix (van Vuuren et al 2014). Since the four RCPs establish the direct link to the climate model results, they are obviously prime candidates to define the rows of the matrix.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

et al. 2014

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The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to

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A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

Cited by 261 publications

References 29 publications

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

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