A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the Climatic Change (2014( ) 122:373-386 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe

“…The RCPs are the new standard in the climate change literature and are now being complemented by a set of socio-economic scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (Ebi et al 2014, Van Vuuren et al 2014. 17 The OECD (2012b) review finds that the income elasticity of the VSL is in the range of 0.7 and 0.9 in most of the regressions that use screening criteria.…”

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

“…This paper takes up the question of scenario based policy analysis in the context of the new scenario framework. The framework is introduced in a series of four papers in this special issue (Ebi et al 2014;van Vuuren et al 2014;O'Neill et al 2014, are the other three).…”

“…The general approach is presented in van Vuuren et al (2014). At its core is the concept of a scenario matrix that combines so-called shared socioeconomic reference pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs, van Vuuren et al 2011).…”

“…Likewise, the existence of a global adaptation fund and international insurance mechanisms against climate change impacts will affect the ability to implement adaptation measures in addition to the challenges to adaption in the SSPs. We therefore ask the question how the SSP 1 We need to distinguish between the four RCPs created for climate model simulations (van Vuuren et al 2011) and climate forcing used more broadly to characterize the rows of the scenario matrix (van Vuuren et al 2014). Since the four RCPs establish the direct link to the climate model results, they are obviously prime candidates to define the rows of the matrix.…”

Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations

“…Here we focus on the second track, where the community activity is aimed at developing a small number of alternative possible trends in future socioeconomic development, referred to as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs; O'Neill et al 2013). SSPs could be paired with different trajectories of radiative forcing known as representative concentration pathways (RCPs; van Vuuren et al 2013van Vuuren et al , 2011 and with common policy assumptions (Kriegler et al, Submitted for publication in this special issue).…”