A Propensity Score Approach towards Assessing Neighborhood Risk of Parole Revocation

Recidivism and Neighborhood Governance

“…In addition, neighborhood concentrated disadvantage failed to have a statistically significant effect on recidivism. This result is consistent with some studies (e.g., Huebner, Varano, and Bynum 2007; Stahler et al 2013) but contradicts others (e.g., Hipp, Petersilia, and Turner 2010; Kubrin and Stewart 2006; ten Bensel, Gibbs, and Lytle 2015). The neighborhood vacancy rate is statistically significant for the 2004–2016 period, indicating that location in neighborhoods with more vacancy increases the hazard of recidivism.…”

“…This poses a missing data problem in measuring neighborhood effects on recidivism if offenders move from the initial reported residence. This is a limitation shared by many other studies of recidivism (e.g., Grunwald et al 2010; Kubrin and Stewart 2006; ten Bensel, Gibbs, and Lytle 2015). Most of these studies assume that ex-offenders do not move over the period under which they are observed (typically from six months to three years).…”

“…Our analysis also conveys the importance of recognizing nonrandom assignment in research into neighborhood effects on recidivism. Although this problem is widely recognized in the literature, few recidivism studies (with exception to Kirk 2009 and ten Bensel, Gibbs, and Lytle 2015) attempt to address this problem. Our findings suggest that the relationship between some neighborhood characteristics and recidivism hazard could be artifacts of assignment bias rather than direct causal effects.…”

“…A number of studies suggest that the neighborhood disadvantage–recidivism relationship is not entirely the result of ex-offenders being more vulnerable to recidivism. Neighborhood characteristics such as concentrated disadvantage (Hipp, Petersilia, and Turner 2010; Kubrin and Stewart 2006; ten Bensel, Gibbs, and Lytle 2015; Wallace 2015), residential instability (Kirk 2009; Tillyer and Vose 2011), and racial heterogeneity (Miller, Caplan, and Ostermann 2016) have all been found to affect recidivism. In addition, studies on recidivism suggest that neighborhood social organization (i.e., the state of social relationships and their by-products such as social capital) and formal and informal institutional arrangements significantly affects prisoner reentry and recidivism (Morenoff and Harding 2014; Visher and Travis 2003).…”

“…Ex-offenders returning to the community face challenges such as weakened family and social relationships, fewer opportunities for gainful employment due to outdated skills and stigma in the labor market, and psychological trauma from prison experience (Morenoff and Harding 2014). In addition, studies have emerged suggesting that characteristics of neighborhoods in which ex-offenders reside affects their recidivism risk (Clear 2007; Kirk 2009; Kubrin and Stewart 2006; ten Bensel, Gibbs, and Lytle 2015; Visher and Travis 2003). Other research suggests that formal and informal institutions at the neighborhood level play a significant role in reinforcing neighborhood social control (Kornhauser 1978; Sampson and Groves 1989; Shaw and McKay 1942).…”