A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

Kriticos, Darren J.; Watt, Michael S.; Withers, T. M.; Leriche, Agathe; Watson, M. C.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.039

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Such models have often had to rely upon informed guesses for parameters describing the soil moisture and air temperature growth response functions. Some CLIMEX and DYMEX ) models have employed growth responses that have been parameterised based on trial observations (Kriticos et al 2009), few have used phenological observations to infer cardinal temperatures (De Villiers et al 2012), and none that we know of have involved perennial species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using seasonal measurements to inform ecophysiology: extracting cardinal growth temperatures for process-based growth models of five Eucalyptus species/crosses from simple field trials

Watt

Rubilar

Kimberley

et al. 2014

N.Z. j. of For. Sci.

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Background: Development of a relatively simple growth modelling approach for plantation species that allows derivation of cardinal (base, optimum and ceiling) air temperatures for growth, whilst accounting for changes in organism size, would represent a considerable advance over existing models. Such an approach would provide insight into species phenology and, in an agronomic setting, allow growers to closely match species to sites. Here, a model is described that can be used to predict seasonal variation in growth and cardinal air temperatures from simple seasonal measurements at a single site. Methods: The model was applied to data from an irrigated trial comprising two Eucalyptus species and three Eucalyptus crosses. Using measurements of mean daily air temperature data and stem volume, taken over a two year period, the model was fitted to the data and used to estimate cardinal air temperatures for the five species/crosses. Results: The model predictions corresponded well to the actual data for all five species/crosses, with R 2 ranging from 0.993 to 0.999. The optimum air temperature, T o , for E. camaldulensis x E. globulus of 26.9°C significantly exceeded T o for the other four species/crosses, where T o ranged from 15.4 to 18.7°C. As T o for E. camaldulensis x E. globulus was close to the highest mean daily air temperature recorded at the study site, the air temperature modifier for this species was almost always sub-optimal and consequently this cross was not well matched to the site. In contrast, T o for the other four species/crosses were considerably closer to the mean air temperature of the site with T o for E. nitens most closely approximating the mean air temperature (15.4 vs. 13.0°C).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using seasonal measurements to inform ecophysiology: extracting cardinal growth temperatures for process-based growth models of five Eucalyptus species/crosses from simple field trials

Watt

Rubilar

Kimberley

et al. 2014

N.Z. j. of For. Sci.

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“…Sebuah kohort baru akan terbentuk jika satu atau lebih individu memasuki sebuah tahapan kehidupan melalui penggunaan fungsi fisiologis bergantung pada keadaan variabel pada satu waktu tertentu (Kriticos et al 2009 (Nahrung et al 2008).…”

Section: Deskripsi Modelunclassified

Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim

2015

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ABSTRAKIklim merupakan faktor yang sangat berpengaruh pada kelimpahan hama penggerek batang padi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (i) menyusun model prediksi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning (PBK) dan (ii) menilai kemampuan model untuk memprediksi kelimpahan dan puncak populasi PBK pada skenario perubahan iklim SRES A1FI dan B1. Pemodelan PBK membutuhkan dua komponen utama, yaitu paramater iklim dan suhu ambang bawah perkembangan (T o ) untuk menggambarkan siklus hidup PBK dari tahap telur, larva, pupa, dan imago. Penelitian menggunakan perangkat lunak DYMEX yang dapat menggambarkan perkembangan, mortalitas, transfer individu dari satu tahap ke tahap kehidupan selanjutnya, serta fekunditas dan reproduksi PBK. Nilai koefisien determinasi (R 2 ) kalibrasi model antara prediksi dan observasi menunjukkan korelasi positif yang kuat dengan nilai R 2 sebesar 0,65. Validasi model juga dapat memprediksi populasi puncak, dengan R 2 sebesar 0,42. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa kecenderungan puncak populasi terjadi ketika intensitas curah hujan tinggi, yaitu pada bulan Maret sampai April, Juli sampai September, dan November sampai Desember. Model memprediksi populasi PBK di wilayah Sukamandi mencapai 3 generasi per tahun, sedangkan di Kuningan 2 generasi per tahun. Simulasi model di bawah skenario perubahan iklim SRES A1FI dan B1 menunjukkan perbedaan sensitivitas. Ada kecenderungan peningkatan populasi PBK di wilayah Kuningan, dan kecenderungan penurunan di wilayah Sukamandi. Di bawah perubahan iklim, kondisi lingkungan di Kuningan menjadi lebih cocok untuk perkembangbiakan PBK, yang memungkinkan peningkatan jumlah generasi per tahun.Kata kunci: DYMEX, kelimpahan, model populasi, perubahan iklim, puncak populasi ABSTRACT Rice stem borer abundance are largely influenced by climate. This research aims to (i) develop a population dynamic model of yellow stem borer (YSB) and (ii) to assess the model's ability to predict abundance and population peak of YSB under climate change scenario SRES A1FI and B1. Modeling the YSB requires two major components: climate parameter and lower developmental threshold temperatures (T o ) to describe life cycle of YSB from the egg, larva, pupa, and adult stages. The research utilized DYMEX software to describe development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one to the next life stages, fecundity and reproduction of YSB. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of calibration models between predictions and observations showed a strong positive correlation of 0.65. Model validation could well predict the peak population, with R 2 = 0.42. The simulations showed that the trend of population peak occur at high rainfall i.e.

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“…The key principle of international environment law is to prevent the risks and harms before the insertion of the alien invasive species [4]. The exact investigation data will help people put the theoretical principle into the factual effect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Darren's research on the interactions between a biological control agent (Cleopus japonicas) and its plant host (Buddleja davidii). It is based on a mess of data, which are precise and reliable and successive three years' data from 2007 to 2009 [4]. And some risk assessment models are introduced for preventing alien invasive species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of the Information Management System for Monitoring Alien Invasive Species

Li¹,

Ge²,

Gao³

et al. 2011

Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture IV

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Abstract.One of the effective methods to prevent the excessive extending of alien invasive species is to really master their epidemic trends and to take appropriate measures to control them. So, the information management system for monitoring alien invasive species based on the integrated technology was developed to provide the information services for the governments, experts and farmers. The main modules of the system are the sub-system of investigation data management and the sub-system of real-time epidemic reporting in new extending area. In the investigation data management sub-system, the dynamic data of the invasive species in invaded areas can be input into the system. And in the sub-system of real-time epidemic reporting in new extending area, the epidemic information can be reported in E-mail, telephone-voice, short message, voice mail, videoconference or other format with users' telephone, cell phone, personal computer, and personal digital assistant(PDA) based on the integrated technology. The system built the information exchanging bridges among the governments, experts and farmers, letting them to make more effective decisions.

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A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

Cited by 26 publications

References 26 publications

Using seasonal measurements to inform ecophysiology: extracting cardinal growth temperatures for process-based growth models of five Eucalyptus species/crosses from simple field trials

Using seasonal measurements to inform ecophysiology: extracting cardinal growth temperatures for process-based growth models of five Eucalyptus species/crosses from simple field trials

Pemodelan fenologi populasi penggerek batang padi kuning Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) berbasis pengaruh iklim

Development of the Information Management System for Monitoring Alien Invasive Species

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