A process‐based model for quantifying the impact of climate change on permafrost thermal regimes

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Wenjun; Cihlar, J.

doi:10.1029/2002jd003354

Cited by 146 publications

(154 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The heat flow model used in this study does not account for annual or inter-annual variations of water content in the active layer layers, like other model approaches do (e.g. Zhang et al, 2003;Burn and Zhang, 2009). However, the model performed well during calibration, even in the ice-rich site of Endalen.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

et al. 2011

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Abstract.Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and modelling. Ground temperature data from boreholes were used to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface air temperature records and possible future temperatures downscaled from multiple global climate models. We discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a gradual increase between 1912 and 2010, by about 1.5 • C to 2 • C at 20 m depth. The active layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics.

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Section: Uncertainties and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

et al. 2011

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“…In order to make DNDC more suitable for northern ecosystems, especially frozen soil conditions, we incorporated a permafrost model, NEST, into the model framework . NEST is a processbased model which simulates ground thermal dynamics, soil freeze-thaw dynamics, and permafrost conditions (Zhang et al, 2003). In NEST, soil temperature and the permafrost thermal regime are calculated by solving the heat conduction equation, with the upper boundary condition determined by surface energy balance and the lower boundary condition being defined as the geothermal heat flux.…”

Section: Soil Freeze-thaw and Permafrost Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In NEST, soil temperature and the permafrost thermal regime are calculated by solving the heat conduction equation, with the upper boundary condition determined by surface energy balance and the lower boundary condition being defined as the geothermal heat flux. The effects of climate, vegetation, snow pack, ground features, and hydrological conditions on the soil thermal regime are incorporated into the model on the basis of energy and water exchanges within soil-vegetation-atmosphere system (Zhang et al, 2003(Zhang et al, , 2005. To ensure that DNDC simulates permafrost environmental factors and biogeochemistry in synchrony, NEST's functions, which describe soil thermal and hydrologic regimes, were embedded into the framework of DNDC at the model code level.…”

Section: Soil Freeze-thaw and Permafrost Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes based on multiyear modeling across a permafrost thaw gradient at Stordalen, Sweden

Deng

Frolking

et al. 2014

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. Northern peatlands in permafrost regions contain a large amount of organic carbon (C) in the soil. Climate warming and associated permafrost degradation are expected to have significant impacts on the C balance of these ecosystems, but the magnitude is uncertain. We incorporated a permafrost model, Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST), into a biogeochemical model, DeNitrificationDeComposition (DNDC), to model C dynamics in highlatitude peatland ecosystems. The enhanced model was applied to assess effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes of a subarctic peatland at Stordalen, Sweden. DNDC simulated soil freeze-thaw dynamics, net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE), and CH 4 fluxes across three typical land cover types, which represent a gradient in the process of ongoing permafrost thaw at Stordalen. Model results were compared with multiyear field measurements, and the validation indicates that DNDC was able to simulate observed differences in seasonal soil thaw, NEE, and CH 4 fluxes across the three land cover types. Consistent with the results from field studies, the modeled C fluxes across the permafrost thaw gradient demonstrate that permafrost thaw and the associated changes in soil hydrology and vegetation not only increase net uptake of C from the atmosphere but also increase the annual to decadal radiative forcing impacts on climate due to increased CH 4 emissions. This study indicates the potential of utilizing biogeochemical models, such as DNDC, to predict the soil thermal regime in permafrost areas and to investigate impacts of permafrost thaw on ecosystem C fluxes after incorporating a permafrost component into the model framework.

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“…The model was validated against measurements of energy fluxes, snow depth, soil temperature and thaw depth. Detailed description and validation of the model is given by Zhang et al [2003].…”

Section: Model and Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil temperature in Canada during the twentieth century: Complex responses to atmospheric climate change

et al. 2005

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[1] Most climate records and climate change scenarios projected by general circulation models are for atmospheric conditions. However, permafrost distribution as well as ecological and biogeochemical processes at high latitudes is mainly controlled by soil thermal conditions, which may be affected by atmospheric climate change. In this paper, the changes in soil temperature during the twentieth century in Canada were simulated at 0.5°latitude/longitude spatial resolution using a process-based model. The results show that the mean annual soil temperature differed from the mean annual air temperature by À2°to 7°C, with a national average of 2.5°C. Soil temperature generally responded to the forcing of air temperature but in complex ways. The changes in annual mean soil temperature during the twentieth century differed from that of air temperature by À3°to 3°C from place to place, and the difference was more significant in winter and spring. On average, for the whole of Canada the annual mean soil temperature at 20 cm depth increased by 0.6°C, while the annual mean air temperature increased by 1.0°C. Three mechanisms were investigated to explain this differentiation: air temperature change, which altered the thickness and duration of snow cover, thereby altering the response of soil temperature; seasonal differences in changes of air temperature; and changes in precipitation. The first two mechanisms generally buffer the response of soil temperature to changes in air temperature, while the effect of precipitation is significant and varies with time and space. This complex response of soil temperature to changes in air temperature and precipitation would have significant implications for the impacts of climate change.

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A process‐based model for quantifying the impact of climate change on permafrost thermal regimes

Cited by 146 publications

References 70 publications

Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

Assessing effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes based on multiyear modeling across a permafrost thaw gradient at Stordalen, Sweden

Soil temperature in Canada during the twentieth century: Complex responses to atmospheric climate change

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