Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

Etzelmüller, Bernd; Schuler, Thomas; Isaksen, Ketil; Christiansen, Hanne H.; Farbrot, H.; Benestad, Rasmus E.

doi:10.5194/tc-5-67-2011

Cited by 95 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(55 reference statements)

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“…Delisle, 2007;Lawrence et al, 2008) and for selected regions (e.g. Etzelmüller et al, 2011). The results indicate a significant reduction of the total permafrost area and a pronounced deepening of the active layer in the remaining areas until 2100.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost

et al. 2011

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Abstract. In this study, we present field measurements and numerical process modeling from western Svalbard showing that the ground surface temperature below the snow is impacted by strong wintertime rain events. During such events, rain water percolates to the bottom of the snow pack, where it freezes and releases latent heat. In the winter season 2005/2006, on the order of 20 to 50 % of the wintertime precipitation fell as rain, thus confining the surface temperature to close to 0 • C for several weeks. The measured average ground surface temperature during the snow-covered period is −0.6 • C, despite of a snow surface temperature of on average −8.5 • C. For the considered period, the temperature threshold below which permafrost is sustainable on long timescales is exceeded. We present a simplified model of rain water infiltration in the snow coupled to a transient permafrost model. While small amounts of rain have only minor impact on the ground surface temperature, strong rain events have a long-lasting impact. We show that consecutively applying the conditions encountered in the winter season 2005/2006 results in the formation of an unfrozen zone in the soil after three to five years, depending on the prescribed soil properties. If water infiltration in the snow is disabled in the model, more time is required for the permafrost to reach a similar state of degradation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost

et al. 2011

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“…Recent observations show that permafrost has typically warmed by 0.5 to 2 • C, depending on location (Solomon et al, 2007;Etzelmüller et al, 2011;Osterkamp, 2007). In addition, measurements suggest there is an observable deepening of the permafrost active layer (Shiklomanov et al, 2010;Frauenfeld et al, 2004;Wu and Zhang, 2010;Callaghan et al, 2010;Isaksen et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing

2012

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Abstract. Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO 2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH 4 ) emission rate is 2-59 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and 50-270 Pg C has been released as CO 2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08-0.36 • C (all 5th-95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower -between 0.02 and 0.11 • C -for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50 % of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20-30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT.

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“…The high debris component in GPR2 may permit zones of stabilised glacier ice within the moraine. However, this is dependent on the relationship between debris thickness and the response of the active layer to future warming, with permafrost degradation over the twenty-first century principally expected at coastal sites with low elevations (Etzelmüller et al, 2011).…”

Section: Implications Of Subsurface Observations On Long-term Landscamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

et al. 2018

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Glacial landsystems in the high-Arctic have been reported to undergo geomorphological transformation during deglaciation. This research evaluates moraine evolution over a decadal timescale at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. This work is of interest because glacial landforms developed in Svalbard have been used as an analogue for landforms developed during Pleistocene mid-latitude glaciation. Ground penetrating radar was used to investigate the subsurface characteristics of moraines. To determine surface change, a LiDAR topographic data set (obtained 2003) and a UAV-derived (obtained 2014) digital surface model processed using structure-from-motion (SfM) are also compared. Evaluation of these data sets together enables subsurface character and landform response to climatic amelioration to be linked. Ground penetrating radar evidence shows that the moraine substrate at Midtre Lovénbreen includes ice-rich (radar velocities of 0.17 m ns (mean thresholded rate of −4.39 m over the 11-year observation period). However, the debris-rich zones show a relatively low rate of surface change (mean thresholded rate of −0.98 m over the 11-year observation period), and the morphology of the debris-rich landforms appear stable over the observation period. A complex response of proglacial landforms to climatic warming is shown to occur within and between glacier forelands as indicated by spatially variable surface lowering rates. Landform response is controlled by the ice-debris balance of the moraine substrate, along with the topographic context (such as the influence of meltwater). Site-specific characteristics such as surface debris thickness and glaciofluvial drainage are, therefore, argued to be a highly important control on surface evolution in ice-cored terrain, resulting in a diverse response of high-Arctic glacial landsystems to climatic amelioration. These results highlight that care is needed when assessing the long-term preservation potential of contemporary landforms at high-Arctic glaciers. A better understanding of ice-cored terrain facilitates the development of appropriate age and climatic interpretations that can be obtained from palaeo ice-marginal landsystems.

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Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

Cited by 95 publications

References 53 publications

Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost

Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost

Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

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