A probabilistic approach to automated bidding in alternative auctions

Dumas, Marlon; Aldred, Lachlan; Governatori, Guido; Hofstede, Arthur ter; Russell, Nick

doi:10.1145/511459.511460

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…However ontology editors like Protégé 1 require specialised knowledge and are generally unsuitable to a community of users who are primarily experts in their domain. The capture phase via Web forms was envisaged in [7] and [9] to capture knowledge and to connect the forms to an ontology. However, they did not envisage the possibility to effectively and efficiently enable the definition of user-defined forms.…”

Section: Comparison With the State Of The Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating and Using Organisational Semantic Webs in Large Networked Organisations

Bhagdev

Chakravarthy

Chapman

et al. 2008

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Abstract. Modern knowledge management is based on the orchestration of dynamic communities that acquire and share knowledge according to customized schemas. However, while independence of ontological views is favoured, these communities must also be able to share their knowledge with the rest of the organization. In this paper we introduce K-Forms and K-Search, a suite of Semantic Web tools for supporting distributed and networked knowledge acquisition, capturing, retrieval and sharing. They enable communities of users to define their own domain views in an intuitive way (automatically translated into formal ontologies) and capture and share knowledge according to them. The tools favour reuse of existing ontologies; reuse creates as side effect a network of (partially) interconnected ontologies that form the basis for knowledge exchange among communities. The suite is under release to support knowledge capture, retrieval and sharing in a large jet engine company.

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Section: Comparison With the State Of The Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating and Using Organisational Semantic Webs in Large Networked Organisations

Bhagdev

Chakravarthy

Chapman

et al. 2008

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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“…Extrapolation techniques have been proposed to approximate the winner's true valuation from a set of past English auctions (see [2]). However, this information is not required by the shill agent.…”

Section: B Prediction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bidding at the second highest price is a much safer strategy, and should capture the majority of the desired profit from shilling. [2] propose two methods that a shill agent can use to construct a probability function. The first uses a histogram of the final auction prices, to be the function that maps a real number x, to the number of past auctions whose final price was exactly x.…”

Section: B Prediction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The domain of the normal distribution is the whole set of real numbers, unlike discrete distributions such as those derived from histograms. [2] performed an analysis of datasets from eBay and Yahoo 2 and showed that the final prices of a set of auctions for a given item are likely to follow a normal distribution. This is due to a given item having a more or less well-known value, around which most of the auctions should finish.…”

Section: B Prediction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Adaptive Shill Bidding Agent

Trevathan

McCabe

Read

2007

Proceedings of the Second International Conference on E-Business

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This paper presents a software bidding agent that inserts fake bids on the seller's behalf to inflate an auction's price. This behaviour is referred to as shill bidding. Shill bidding is strictly prohibited by online auctioneers, as it defrauds unsuspecting buyers by forcing them to pay more for the item. The malicious bidding agent was constructed to aid in developing shill detection techniques. We have previously documented a simple shill bidding agent that incrementally increases the auction price until it reaches the desired profit target, or it becomes too risky to continue bidding. This paper presents an adaptive shill bidding agent which when used over a series of auctions with substitutable items, can revise its strategy based on bidding behaviour in past auctions. The adaptive agent applies a novel prediction technique referred to as the Extremum Consistency (EC) algorithm, to determine the optimal price to aspire for. The EC algorithm has successfully been used in handwritten signature verification for determining the maximum and minimum values in an input stream. The ability of the agent to inflate the price has been tested in a simulated marketplace and experimental results are presented.

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“…To further complicate matters, some bidders have resorted to using software bidding agents to gain a competitive advantage. A software bidding agent is a program that bids on a human bidder's behalf (see [2], [4], [10], [13]). In the ideal (and intended) sense, the user enters a maximum s/he is willing to pay.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting the Strategies of a Bid Sniper

Trevathan

Read

Lee

et al. 2011

2011 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

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Bid sniping is a dubious practice used in online auctions whereby a bidder makes a bid in the closing moments in an attempt to deny other bidders time to react. The primary goal for a bid sniper is to win the auction for the lowest price possible, without the risk of being forced into submitting any higher bids if there is competition for the item. This paper investigates the phenomenon of bid sniping and its prevalence in commercial online auctions. We seek to show the extent of bid sniping, understand the rationale of why it occurs, what effect this has on the other auction participants, and what can be done to prevent the practice. Based on this understanding, we present a software bidding agent that follows a bid sniping strategy. The agent has the ability to suppress an auction's price through knowing when to bid, how much to bid, how to deal with rivals, and when to cease bidding. We also propose a new online auction format that can eliminate/reduce the effect of bid sniping. The proposal adds an undisclosed random time-out extension to an auction's finishing time to entice bidders to bid their maximum amount immediately or risk being excluded from the auction.

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A probabilistic approach to automated bidding in alternative auctions

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Creating and Using Organisational Semantic Webs in Large Networked Organisations

Creating and Using Organisational Semantic Webs in Large Networked Organisations

An Adaptive Shill Bidding Agent

Targeting the Strategies of a Bid Sniper

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