A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Abstract

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

“…This is fairly consistent with the median age of the U.S. prison population (https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/aspp9313.pdf) but is much younger than the typical SVP population. Given that the average age of patients discharged from SVP commitments is around 56 years old (e.g., Azizian et al, 2021), it is difficult to determine whether the offense patterns they previously exhibited in their younger years should be assumed to continue after discharge from their SVP commitments. Indeed, results from Bouchard and Lussier’s (2015) estimation methods suggested that risk of being reconvicted (or caught) are not equally distributed among age groups, with a risk of conviction twice as high for younger offenders.…”

Pathways for VA and community stakeholder management of military veterans with sexual offenses: Sexual and nonsexual recidivism rates and risk factors in military veterans released from California sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment.

“…The study was an archival review of case files of individuals forensically hospitalized under postprison civil commitment pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator Act (SVPA) who were later discharged to the community. We used the data set as detailed by Paden et al (2021) and Azizian et al (2022); the methods are as described within these published articles. As detailed within these prior publications (Azizian et al, 2022; Paden et al, 2021), institutional review board (IRB) approval was obtained from the California Committee Protection of Human Subjects, which serves as the IRB for all California state agencies.…”

“…We used the data set as detailed by Paden et al (2021) and Azizian et al (2022); the methods are as described within these published articles. As detailed within these prior publications (Azizian et al, 2022; Paden et al, 2021), institutional review board (IRB) approval was obtained from the California Committee Protection of Human Subjects, which serves as the IRB for all California state agencies. The study also underwent review by the California State Hospital Research Committee.…”

Why are individuals over age 60 still committed as sexually violent persons?

“…For example, there could be varying time elapsed from the 60th birthday to the date of their annual evaluation, the judge to consider a petition, and a resulting trial can take several years (e.g. Azizian et al, 2021).…”

“…For example, there could be varying time elapsed from the 60th birthday to the date of their annual evaluation, the judge to consider a petition, and a resulting trial can take several years (e.g. Azizian et al., 2021). Thus, the number of years since turning 60 may be an important factor in whether a patient has had enough time to fully pursue and proceed through the discharge processes.…”