Do Sanctions Affect Undetected Sexual Offending?

Abstract

Undetected sexual offending creates challenges for risk assessment since estimated sexual recidivism rates are based on documented charges or convictions. Courts and other stakeholders may be primarily interested in the true risk for sexual reoffense and not simply risk for detected sexual offenses. Attempts to study and quantify the rate of undetected sexual offending have resulted in a wide variety of estimates. In this study, we explore whether sanctions imposed for detected sexual offenses increase the detection rate of subsequent offenses, and thereby suppress undetected sexual offending in an exceptionally high-risk sample who were ultimately committed as Sexually Violent Persons. Results indicate the detection rate of sexual offenses increased following an initial sanction, subsequently decreasing the proportion of undetected to detected offending. This effect only occurred after the first sanction. Overall, the sample had a high detection rate and spent little time in the community before subsequent arrests. These results differ from other reports that high rates of sexual offenses go undetected.

Sexual homicide offenders as repeat and nonrepeat offenders: An empirical study of sexual homicide cases in Mainland China

“…First, because the under‐reporting of sexual offenses is a universal problem, it is uncertain whether the nonrepeat offenders in this study were truly first‐time offenders. Undetected sex offenders are not uncommon, posing significant challenges for risk assessment (Kelley et al., 2023; Lisak & Miller, 2002). Furthermore, given the difficulty of obtaining official crime data in mainland China (see Chan, Li, Liu, Lu, et al., 2019) and the inaccessibility of official crime data on sexual homicides, only basic descriptive information about the offenders, victims, and MO characteristics could be obtained.…”

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

“…Most of these men in the Dunkelfeld project, however, had never been detected by the criminal justice system, and their behavior may be different compared with men who have been caught and sanctioned for their offending. For example, Kelley et al (2023) found that the number of undetected sex offenses decreased after the first sanction for sexual offending. A recent study on men convicted for CSEM offenses found that 10% self-reported reoffending under anonymous survey conditions (Steel et al, 2021).…”