A practical method of determining project risk contingency budgets

Cioffi, Denis F.; Khamooshi, Homayoun

doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602586

Cited by 32 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Overall, the small and medium enterprises confirmed the assumption that companies without project management perceive a crisis worse than project-managed enterprises. These businesses have the advantage that they process the crisis plans (Cioffi, 2009;Pich, 2002) and they plan for a shorter period. For this reason, their ability to predict the crisis is more accurate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Project Approach Implementation on the Occurrence and Perception of Crises in Agricultural Enterprises in the Czech Republic

Řehoř

Vrchota

2017

Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun.

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Project management is one of the most important management tool in many enterprises. Agricultural enterprises with project management are able to foresee their future. Their managers are able to identify upcoming problems earlier and get ready to them in advance. Crisis is seen as a phenomenon more common than rare and it is therefore essential that the enterprises respond by reflecting the aspects and impacts of the crisis in their corporate strategy, and the managers learn to manage crises effectively. The paper deals with a single research of the management of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Czech Republic. It is focused on the use of projects in farm management and evaluation of the significance of the crisis managers of these enterprises. Only about 15 % of enterprises manage its organization by projects. The crisis occurs in all organizations, in varying degrees and intensity. Most often agricultural enterprises are faced with a crisis caused by the change in legislation and bureaucracy. The importance of a crisis was evaluated by the managers with an average rate of 3.6 (where 5 was the highest). The questionnaire method was used for primary data collection. The limitation of the paper covers areas such the sample (34 enterprises), methodology and data.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Project Approach Implementation on the Occurrence and Perception of Crises in Agricultural Enterprises in the Czech Republic

Řehoř

Vrchota

2017

Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun.

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“…Traditionally for the construction projects contingency reserves are set between 1-10% of the estimated project cost (Thompson and Perry, 1992;Mills, 2001). This is an arbitrary technique that is difficult to justify (Thompson and Perry, 1992;Lhee et al, 2009;Cioffi and Khamooshi, 2009). Project cost overruns and associated contingency funds are also predicted using predictive model (usually multiple regression analysis) and set of identified risks (Baccarini, 2005;Federle and Pigneri, 1993).…”

Section: A Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Highway Project Cost using Probabilistic Technique

Hannan¹,

Ahmed²,

Ashraf³

et al. 2017

dtetr

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Accurate assessment of effort, time and resources for estimation of project cost is a challenging task for project managers. Several methodologies are commonly practiced around the globe for project cost estimation based on the project's scope, type, and availability of resources. In developing countries like Pakistan most of the construction projects face delay and cost overrun, and construction industry continues to use traditional methodologies for preparation of project cost estimates. Present study developed a probabilistic framework for project cost estimation using Monte Carlo Simulation. A probabilistic model is proposed for estimation of total project cost using data on key risk factors that included (1) labour efficiencies, (2) machine efficiencies, (3) construction material wastages, and (4) construction items' prices. Using data from completed highway projects, model validation results revealed that developed model has the ability to predict reliable future project cost.

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“…At first, many scholars carried out statistical methods to deal with the schedule risk and gradually, many concluded that human factors, professional experience and personal judgment were essential for risk evaluation [20]. Moreover, the indicators used to evaluate the risks can be summarized as predictability, exposure, manageability and controllability in the previous literature [21][22][23][24], and risk cost has been used as an important risk impact measurement as well [25][26][27]. In addition, diversified models could be utilized for risk assessment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An evaluation index system is established based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), in which there are 5 indicators being used to examine the impact of the risks, including traditional indicators as risk probability, risk uncontrollability and duration extension size [22][23][24][25] as well as innovative indicators like risk category and risk responsibility party (Figure 8). In the course of establishing the index system, the authors considered that impact of risks would partly depend on the inherent attributes of risks as the result of risk analysis based on ISM, thus risk category is added as an important indicator.…”

Section: Establishment Of the Evaluation Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

Rao

Zhang

Shi³

et al. 2014

Sustainability

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Schedule risks are the main threat for high efficiency of schedule management in power grid engineering projects (PGEP). This paper aims to build a systematical framework for schedule risk management, which consists of three dimensions, including the personnel dimension, method dimension and time dimension, namely supervisory personnel, management methods and the construction process, respectively. Responsibilities of staff with varied functions are discussed in the supervisory personnel part, and six stages and their corresponding 40 key works are ensured as the time dimension. Risk identification, analysis, evaluation and prevention together formed the method dimension. Based on this framework, 222 schedule risks occur in the whole process of PGEPs are identified via questionnaires and expert interviews. Then, the relationship among each risk is figured out based on the Interpretative Structure Model (ISM) method and the impact of each risk is quantitatively assessed by establishing evaluation system. The actual practice of the proposed framework is verified through the analysis of the first stage of a PGEP. Finally, the results show that this framework of schedule risk management is meaningful for improving the efficiency of project management. It provides managers with a clearer OPEN ACCESS Sustainability 2014, 6 6873 procedure with which to conduct risk management, helps them to timely detect risks and prevent risks from occurring. It is also easy for managers to judge the influence level of each risk, so they can take actions based on the level of each risk's severity. Overall, it is beneficial for power grid enterprises to achieve a sustainable management.

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A practical method of determining project risk contingency budgets

Cited by 32 publications

References 11 publications

Influence of Project Approach Implementation on the Occurrence and Perception of Crises in Agricultural Enterprises in the Czech Republic

Influence of Project Approach Implementation on the Occurrence and Perception of Crises in Agricultural Enterprises in the Czech Republic

Estimation of Highway Project Cost using Probabilistic Technique

A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

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