A physiological trait‐based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; McCoy, Neil; Hirsch, Christopher; Pelini, Shannon L.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dunn, Robert R.

doi:10.1890/11-2296.1

Cited by 124 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…We did not attempt to sample herbivore populations throughout the experiment because we did not want to alter their potential effects on the seedlings. However, previous work in this system demonstrates that the responses of other insect taxa to warming are often idiosyncratic, with the abundance and activity of some insect taxa responding positively to warming while others respond negatively to warming (Diamond et al 2012, Stuble et al 2013). Another possibility is that generalist herbivores switch from feeding on Q. alba to other species as temperatures increase.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Interactions in a warmer world: effects of experimental warming, conspecific density, and herbivory on seedling dynamics

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Many effects of a changing climate for organisms, populations, and ecosystems are already apparent. Less studied are the effects of increases in temperature on species interactions. While warming may potentially alter interactions among species, species interactions may also mediate individual species responses to ongoing climatic change. In this experiment we manipulated temperature in field-based, open-top chambers for three years to examine the relationship between biotic interactions and climatic warming on the population dynamics of seedlings of Quercus alba. We investigated the effect of warming on rates of insect herbivory on Q. alba seedlings. Additionally, we assessed the relative effects of increasing temperature, insect herbivory, and conspecific density on seedling survival. We found two unexpected results. First, we observed a negative relationship between temperature and levels of insect herbivory during each year of the experiment. Second, higher levels of herbivory were associated with higher rates of survival to the second year of the study. Although we never detected a direct effect of conspecific density on seedling survival, herbivory and conspecific seedling density did interact to influence Q. alba seedling survival early in the experiment. Taken together, our results indicate species responses to climatic warming may be contingent on intra-and interspecific interactions, sometimes in complicated and counter-intuitive ways.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Interactions in a warmer world: effects of experimental warming, conspecific density, and herbivory on seedling dynamics

et al. 2014

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“…The slopes have been scaled, but not centered, such that shaded circles always correspond with positive slopes. Data for Protomagnathus americanus are not included in the figure because this species is not represented in Moreau's phylogeny; the results for this species are: slope ¼ 2.3EÀ05, SE ¼ 6.2EÀ05; P ¼ 0.72. v www.esajournals.org may be predictable based on the thermal tolerance (CT max ) of these species (Diamond et al 2012a, Stuble et al 2013. Specifically, the relationships between experimental warming and ant worker densities and foraging were significantly associated with CT max , but only for ants at the southern study site.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…2 and 3) (F 1,18 ¼ .2.8, P ¼ 0.11). Although ants with higher CT max may be more active in higher temperatures (Diamond et al 2012a, Stuble et al 2013, other processes such as thermoregulation (Sunday et al 2014) or changes in nest architecture (Jones and Oldroyd 2007) may allow ant species to persist in the short run in environments that exceed their CT max . In the long run, these acclimations may lead to a reduction in colony size and eventual extirpation (Sinervo 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies have demonstrated that air temperature can potentially influence ant community structure (Arnan et al 2007, Wittman et al 2010, Lessard et al 2011, diversity (Kaspari et al 2000, Sanders et al 2007, Pelini et al 2011a), colony survival , worker density (Pelini et al 2011a, Diamond et al 2012a, foraging behavior (Ruano et al 2000, Pelini et al 2011a, Stuble et al 2013, and competitive interactions (Cerda et al 1997(Cerda et al , 1998.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specifically, because most northern species rarely experience temperatures near their upper thermal limits, their performance and abundance should not be depressed by warming (Diamond et al 2012a). If other ant species from warmer microhabitats such as forest gaps are able to colonize the chambers, ant community composition would change and diversity would increase in the warmer chambers at Harvard Forest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geographic differences in effects of experimental warming on ant species diversity and community composition

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Ecological communities are being reshaped by climatic change. Losses and gains of species will alter community composition and diversity but these effects are likely to vary geographically and may be hard to predict from uncontrolled ''natural experiments''. In this study, we used open-top warming chambers to simulate a range of warming scenarios for ground-nesting ant communities at a northern (Harvard Forest, MA) and southern (Duke Forest, NC) study site in the eastern US. After 2.5 years of experimental warming, we found no significant effects of accumulated growing degree days or soil moisture on ant diversity or community composition at the northern site, but a decrease in asymptotic species richness and changes in community composition at the southern site. However, fewer than 10% of the species at either site responded significantly to the warming treatments. Our results contrast with those of a comparable natural experiment conducted along a nearby elevational gradient, in which species richness and composition responded strongly to changes in temperature and other correlated variables. Together, our findings provide some support for the prediction that warming will have a larger negative effect on ecological communities in warmer locales at lower latitudes and suggest that predicted responses to warming may differ between controlled field experiments and unmanipulated thermal gradients.

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From pest data to abundance‐based risk maps combining eco‐physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability

Lacasella

Marta

Singh

et al. 2017

Ecological Applications

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Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where scouting efforts and prophylactic measures should be concentrated. The approach we took is general, relatively simple, and can be applied to other species, habitats and geographical areas for which species abundance data and biotic and abiotic data are available.

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A physiological trait‐based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming

Cited by 124 publications

References 44 publications

Interactions in a warmer world: effects of experimental warming, conspecific density, and herbivory on seedling dynamics

Interactions in a warmer world: effects of experimental warming, conspecific density, and herbivory on seedling dynamics

Geographic differences in effects of experimental warming on ant species diversity and community composition

From pest data to abundance‐based risk maps combining eco‐physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability

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