A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget

Abstract

We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050.

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

“…It was not until new political pressure, including from the Fridays for Future movement, supported by Scientists for Future [157], [158], that the consequence of the signed Paris Agreement was more explicitly addressed in the public and placed at the forefront of the political agenda. Since then, there has been a long series of new studies concretely dealing with the design of a 100% RE scenario for Germany such as [97], [159], [160], [161], [162], [163], [164], linking to earlier studies preparing the ground [71], [155], [165], [166]. Due to the Russian war in the Ukraine, politicians are currently even discussing ways to be largely independent of fossil fuels, at least in terms of electricity supply, by 2035 [167], which is now the 100% RE target for electricity supply in Germany.…”

Scoping carbon dioxide removal options for Germany–What is their potential contribution to Net-Zero CO2?

“…Economic viability of CDR options is also highly variable and dependent on the technologies and their characteristics. Regarding renewable energy-based options, the Budget Scenario by Simon et al (2022), which aims at implementing a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Germany, requires considerable investment in technologies and infrastructure. In the short term, fuel costs determine overall costs to two thirds, whereas their share decreases from 2030, while power exchange costs increase.…”

“…Contrastingly, the mean wind power density is located mostly in the North-West coastal regions and in few mountainous areas (except the South of Germany) (DTU Wind Energy, 2021). These natural resource occurrences are determining CDR options availability as well as future changes in energy supply by illustrating requirements for expansion in installations and infrastructure (Simon et al, 2022). Corresponding to PV potential, storage options needed for CO 2 are mostly allocated in the northern half of the country, with some locations also in the center and South of Germany (Müller and Reinhold, 2011).…”

From Smart Grids to Super Smart Grids: A Roadmap for Strategic Demand Management for Next Generation SAARC and European Power Infrastructure

“…The consequences of the signed Paris Agreement were not more openly discussed in the community or elevated to the top of the political agenda until increased political pressure, particularly that from the Fridays for Future act and endorsed by Scientists for Future [277], [278]. Since then, a number of fresh studies, including [215], [279], [280], [281], [282], [283], [284], have dealt specifically with the creation of 100 percent RE scheme for Germany, building on prior studies that laid the foundation [188], [276], [285], [286].…”