A party system in flux: the Swedish parliamentary election of September 2018

Aylott, Nicholas; Bolin, Niklas

doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1583885

Cited by 40 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Until recently, all the relevant parties in Sweden had ruled out any form of governmental collaboration with SD. This strict cordon sanitaire started to vane between the 2014 and 2018 general elections, as two of the Alliance parties – Moderates (M) and Christian Democrats (KD) – began showing some appeasement towards SD (Aylott & Bolin 2019). Eventually, the disagreement over how to treat SD led to Alliance’s breakdown in the aftermath of the 2018 election.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ideological Tripolarization, Partisan Tribalism and Institutional Trust: The Foundations of Affective Polarization in the Swedish Multiparty System

Reiljan

Ryan

2021

Scand Pol Stud

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Currently, very little is known about the individual level foundations of affective polarization outside the US context. This paper addresses this research gap by exploring the predictors of affective polarization in Sweden, using nationally representative survey data. From 2010 till the 2018 elections, the Swedish multiparty system was divided into two affectively converged mainstream party blocs that were moderately polarized between each other, and an asymmetrically polarized populist right party that invoked significantly more hostility from the supporters of mainstream parties than vice versa. To unpack the foundations of affective polarization in such a tripolar configuration, we employ a methodological approach that distinguishes not just between in-and outparties but also in-and out-blocs, and separates different conflict dimensions. We find that: (1) voters with stronger partisan identities and more extreme political attitudes exhibit higher levels of affective polarization. The latter, however, is a better predictor of direct dislike towards political opponents; (2) the effects of political attitudes correspond to the tripolar nature of the party system: while affective polarization between the centre-right and -left blocs is mostly driven by socioeconomic positions, the hostility towards Sweden Democrats links predominantly to cultural issues, most notably immigration; (3) institutional trust has a two-edged relationship with affective polarization: populist right voters that trust the country's central institutions more, are less polarized towards mainstream blocs, whereas among centreright voters, higher trust associates with stronger animosity towards Sweden Democrats. We believe that these findings could have broad implications for affective polarization research in multiparty systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ideological Tripolarization, Partisan Tribalism and Institutional Trust: The Foundations of Affective Polarization in the Swedish Multiparty System

Reiljan

Ryan

2021

Scand Pol Stud

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“…Today, parliamentary left‐right voting – while still the norm – is at an all‐time low (Lindvall et al. , ), which reflects a restructuring of political conflict brought about, at least in part, by the SD's emphasis on questions of immigration and integration (Aylott & Bolin ).…”

Section: Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Still blurry? Economic salience, position and voting for radical right parties in Western Europe

Rovný

Polk

2019

European J Political Res

101

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Do radical right parties present blurry economic stances, or have they clarified their positions while moving towards the economic left? This article questions the strategic behaviour of radical right parties in Western Europe. It shows that although radical right parties have increased their discussion of economic issues, and expert placements of this party family on the economic dimension have become more centrist over time, the uncertainty surrounding these placements continues to be higher for the radical right than any other party family in Europe. The article then moves on to examine to what extent voter-party congruence on redistribution, immigration and other issues of social lifestyle predict an individual's propensity to vote for the radical right compared to other parties. Although redistribution is the component of economic policy where the radical right seems to be centrist, the findings indicate that it remains party-voter congruence on immigration that drives support for radical right parties, while the congruence level for redistribution has an insignificant effect. The article concludes that while radical right parties seem to have included some clearly left-leaning economic proposals, which shifted the general expert views of these parties to the economic centre, their overall economic profiles remain as blurry as ever.

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“…If the negotiations between the parties after the election are supposed to matter more, that is, if the blocs are more loosely organized, then, candidate evaluations potentially matter more since the leaders will then have a crucial role in the post-election negotiations. In the 2018 general election, the parties competed more independently than in the previous elections ( Aylott and Bolin, 2019 ). Three of the parties had new party leaders since the previous election (the Greens, the Christian Democrats, and the Moderates), and three of the parties were at risk of not reaching the four percent electoral threshold (the Greens, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation: Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment

Fredén

Sikström

2021

Front. Psychol.

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We propose that leaders play a more important role in voters’ party sympathy in proportional representation systems (PR) than previous research has suggested. Voters, from the 2018 Swedish General Election, were in an experiment asked to describe leaders and parties with three indicative keywords. Statistical models were conducted on these text data to predict their vote choice. The results show that despite that the voters vote for a party, the descriptions of leaders predicted vote choice to a similar extent as descriptions of parties. However, the order of the questions mattered, so that the first questions were more predictive than the second question. These analyses indicate that voters tend to conflate characteristics of leaders with their parties during election campaigns, and that leaders are a more important aspect of voting under PR than previous literature has suggested. Overall, this suggests that statistical analysis of words sheds new light of underlying sympathies related to voting.

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A party system in flux: the Swedish parliamentary election of September 2018

Cited by 40 publications

References 7 publications

Ideological Tripolarization, Partisan Tribalism and Institutional Trust: The Foundations of Affective Polarization in the Swedish Multiparty System

Ideological Tripolarization, Partisan Tribalism and Institutional Trust: The Foundations of Affective Polarization in the Swedish Multiparty System

Still blurry? Economic salience, position and voting for radical right parties in Western Europe

Reevaluating the Influence of Leaders Under Proportional Representation: Quantitative Analysis of Text in an Electoral Experiment

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