A panel path analysis approach to the determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission: does testing matter for confirmed cases?

Goswami, Gour Gobinda; Ali, Arm Mehrab; Islam, Sharose

doi:10.1108/jes-07-2020-0326

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The framework of predicting daily COVID-19 cases is wide. A previous study showed that the number of diagnostic tests conducted positively affect the confirmed daily cases of COVID-19 [ 38 ]. Moreover, a path analysis was done on geographical determinants of COVID-19 daily infections in the U.S. [ 39 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections

Yammine

Rammal

2021

IJERPH

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(1) Background: With the rapid global spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the relatively high daily cases recorded in a short time compared to other types of seasonal flu, the world remains under continuous threat unless we identify the key factors that contribute to these unexpected records. This identification is important for developing effective criteria and plans to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and can guide national authorities to tighten or reduce mitigation measures, in addition to spreading awareness of the important factors that contribute to the propagation of the disease. (2) Methods: The data represents the daily infections (210 days) in four different countries (China, Italy, Iran, and Lebanon) taken approximately in the same duration, between January and March 2020. Path analysis was implemented on the data to detect the significant factors that affect the daily COVID-19 infections. (3) Results: The path coefficients show that quarantine commitment (β = −0.823) and full lockdown measures (β = −0.775) have the largest direct effect on COVID-19 daily infections. The results also show that more experience (β = −0.35), density in society (β = −0.288), medical resources (β = 0.136), and economic resources (β = 0.142) have indirect effects on daily COVID-19 infections. (4) Conclusions: The COVID-19 daily infections directly decrease with complete lockdown measures, quarantine commitment, wearing masks, and social distancing. COVID-19 daily cases are indirectly associated with population density, special events, previous experience, technology used, economic resources, and medical resources.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections

Yammine

Rammal

2021

IJERPH

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“…The broad literature of COVID-19 can be classified into three types: identifying the determinants of death rate or mortality (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8), identifying the determinants of transmission (1,(9)(10)(11)(12), and identifying the economic, social, environmental and ecological impact of COVID-19 (12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22). However, these are primarily socio-economic studies related to COVID-19, which do not include a vast medical literature that focuses on the scientific causes, vulnerability, and overall health impact.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, testing depends on the overall economic capacity of countries. In addition, it also depends on the stringency situation of a country and ability which can also be used as an instrument for identifying the transmission history ( 1 ). After taking all these channels into account, transmission impacts the COVID-19 death rate.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If we consult the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death map for the world for September 23, 2021, we can observe that the intensity of COVID-19 is concentrated within South America, and Europe followed by North America with minimal figures for Africa, Asia, and Oceanian countries (Figure 1) 1 . What accounts for this variation in mortality across countries remains a puzzle with many pieces that need to be fitted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most death rate modeling uses multiple regression frameworks or simple hypothesis tests without much control for interdependencies among test, transmission, stringency, and endogeneity. To fill this gap, we prepared a general mortality model for COVID-19 death in line with Goswami et al ( 1 ), and developed it in the context of death rate modeling, and added old age and comorbidity as additional determinants of mortality. We used a global data set for 117 countries updated on September 23, 2021, and constructed two different models of COVID-19 death.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis

Goswami

Mahapatro

Ali³

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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This paper used Our World data for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death count, test data, stringency, and transmission count and prepared a path model for COVID-19 deaths. We augmented the model with age structure-related variables and comorbidity via non-communicable diseases for 117 countries of the world for September 23, 2021, on a cross-section basis. A broad-based global quantitative study incorporating these two prominent channels with regional variation was unavailable in the existing literature. Old age and comorbidity were identified as two prime determinants of COVID-19 mortality. The path model showed that after controlling for these factors, one SD increase in the proportion of persons above 65, above 70, or of median age raised COVID-19 mortality by more than 0.12 SDs for 117 countries. The regional intensity of death is alarmingly high in South America, Europe, and North America compared with Oceania. After controlling for regions, the figure was raised to 0.213, which was even higher. For old age, the incremental coefficient was the highest for South America (0.564), and Europe (0.314), which were substantially higher than in Oceania. The comorbidity channel via non-communicable diseases illustrated that one SD increase in non-communicable disease intensity increased COVID-19 mortality by 0.132 for the whole sample. The regional figure for the non-communicable disease was 0.594 for South America and 0.358 for Europe compared with the benchmark region Oceania. The results were statistically significant at a 10% level of significance or above. This suggested that we should prioritize vaccinations for the elderly and people with comorbidity via non-communicable diseases like heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes. Further attention should be given to South America and Europe, which are the worst affected regions of the world.

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Factors Associated with Children’s Subjective Wellbeing During COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh

Goswami

Banik

et al. 2023

Child Ind Res

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The study of subjective wellbeing has received increasing interest among social science researchers and policy makers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there appears to be a gap in the knowledge in terms of how the children experienced the pandemic, which may be different from the experience encountered by the adults. This article fills this gap by (a) examining children’s self-reported experience of the pandemic in Bangladesh and (b) identifying the socio-demographic, economic and psycho-social factors which were associated with their subjective wellbeing during the pandemic in the country. For this purpose, a child friendly questionnaire was developed, and a survey was conducted among 1370 children aged 10–12 years. The disruption caused by the pandemic was evident in children’s reporting of the movement of families from their usual place of living, job losses by their parents, food poverty, digital divide, and fear of the pandemic. In terms of factors affecting children’s wellbeing, eight factors (rural-urban differential, food poverty, digital inequality, support from friends and family, ability to manage learning from home, self-perceived safety, and worry about changes in student life) were found to have had statistically significant association with their wellbeing during the pandemic. These findings are discussed in the context of child wellbeing theories and previous empirical studies. Some policies are identified and put forward as recommendations for improving children’s wellbeing in Bangladesh.

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A panel path analysis approach to the determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission: does testing matter for confirmed cases?

Cited by 14 publications

References 29 publications

Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections

Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections

Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis

Factors Associated with Children’s Subjective Wellbeing During COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh

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