Path Analysis to Assess Socio-Economic and Mitigation Measure Determinants for Daily Coronavirus Infections

Abstract

(1) Background: With the rapid global spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the relatively high daily cases recorded in a short time compared to other types of seasonal flu, the world remains under continuous threat unless we identify the key factors that contribute to these unexpected records. This identification is important for developing effective criteria and plans to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and can guide national authorities to tighten or reduce mitigation measures, in addition to spreading awareness of the important factors that contribute to the propagation of the disease. (2) Methods: The data represents the daily infections (210 days) in four different countries (China, Italy, Iran, and Lebanon) taken approximately in the same duration, between January and March 2020. Path analysis was implemented on the data to detect the significant factors that affect the daily COVID-19 infections. (3) Results: The path coefficients show that quarantine commitment (β = −0.823) and full lockdown measures (β = −0.775) have the largest direct effect on COVID-19 daily infections. The results also show that more experience (β = −0.35), density in society (β = −0.288), medical resources (β = 0.136), and economic resources (β = 0.142) have indirect effects on daily COVID-19 infections. (4) Conclusions: The COVID-19 daily infections directly decrease with complete lockdown measures, quarantine commitment, wearing masks, and social distancing. COVID-19 daily cases are indirectly associated with population density, special events, previous experience, technology used, economic resources, and medical resources.

Incidencia de factores socioeconómicos y culturales en la propagación de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en las regiones peruanas

“…Las disposiciones gubernamentales sobre el confinamiento, la cuarentena, el distanciamiento social, así como el uso de mascarillas y protectores faciales, condicionan de manera directa la reducción de los contagios de covid-19 (Yammine & Rammal, 2021). Por ello, el incumplimiento de estas disposiciones o reglas sanitarias contribuyó a la expansión del virus (Hills & Eraso, 2021;Mejía et al, 2021).…”