A Novel Project Risk Assessment Method Development via AHP-TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm

Abstract

In project planning, risk assessment method plays vital role. Poorly assessed project risks cause degeneration at project cost, project completion time, and project output quality and project scope. Each project activity risk influence these project success factors. Implementation performance of a project activity triggers or smooth of its successor’s activity risks. Because of this; employing robust and detailed risk assessment methods is important to reach those project goals. In project risk assessment literature, when it is investigated, it is noticed that risk assessment and evaluation methods are only developed at whole project level. Actually, they are not comprehensive enough to evaluate the project risks at activity level. Besides that traditional risk assessment methods such as risk matrix does not able analyze project risk quantitatively. With this motivation, main aim of this study is developing a multi-criteria based decision method which prioritizing project risks at activity level. AHP and TOPSIS method are combined to developed novel method. In this hybrid method, Constructing AHP model is to prioritize work packages with respect to relative importance of project time, project output quality and project cost. Broken down structure of these work packages are used as input for weighted criteria for TOPSIS method. In second layer of this decision method, TOPSIS model is used for prioritizing predetermined activity risks according weighted project work packages success criteria. In the application of this method, a case study approach is followed. In this sense, “Global Furniture Ltd.” which is established in Istanbul, Turkey is chosen as a case to apply newly developed model. Results showed that application of AHP-Stochastic TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm provides a platform that project risks could be analyzed as quantitative and also at project activity level.

Design of Tat Twam Asi-Discrepancy Evaluation Model Based on TOPSIS in Determining the Improvement Priority Aspect

“…The formula that is used to determine the percentage of quality standards and effectiveness standards [21] can be seen in Equation 1. The formula for simulation of the TOPSIS calculation consists of several equations, included: Equation 2 for calculating normalized matrix [22], Equation 3 for determining scores of matrix-Y [23], Equations 4 and 5 for determining the matrix of negative ideal solutions (A -) and matrix of positive ideal solutions (A + ) [24], Equations 6 and 7 to determine the distance between the values of each indicator with the negative ideal solutions (Di -) and the positive ideal solutions (Di + ) [25,26], and Equation 8 to determine the preference scores of each indicator (Vi) [27]. P = (f/N) × 100% (1) where: P: percentage of quality or effectiveness; f: the total scores that have been obtained; and N: the total of maximum scores.…”

Prioritizing Barriers and Strategies Mapping in Business Intelligence Projects Using Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS Framework in Developing Country

“…Kahraman et al (2003) [44] overcomes the uncertainty of AHP by using fuzzy logic, which usually uses a Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN) scale. Research by Patil & Kant (2014), Chen et al (2015) and Baylan (2020) [42,45,46] describe the steps used to implement fuzzy AHP.…”

Analysis the Determinants of Risk Factor Model for the Jordanian Banking Stocks

“…Therefore, to fill this gap, the current study investigates the use of an extended five-risk factor model for banking portfolio in Jordan over the period from 2006 until 2018. Baylan (2020) indicated that in the literature on project risk assessment, methods for assessing and evaluating risks are only developed at the whole project level. In fact, they are not comprehensive enough to assess project risks at the activity level.…”