A novel probabilistic approach to assess the blade throw hazard of wind turbines

Carbone, Giuseppe; Afferrante, L.

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.09.028

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Since their report, there has been a renewed interest in modeling risk, with several authors reporting on analysis of that risk. [5][6][7][8] The state-of-the-art modeling approach is 6 degrees-of-freedom motion of the blade fragments with aerodynamic loading. Simplified models do not match the results of the 6 degrees-of-freedom models; Sørensen 9 showed that drag ballistics do not capture the downwind distance and the range for vacuum ballistics is too far.…”

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confidence: 99%

Retracted: Analysis of blade fragment risk at a wind energy facility

Larwood

Simms

2018

Wind Energy

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The above article, published online on 6 April 2018 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors, the journal Editor in Chief, Prof. Simon Watson and John Wiley and Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to an error in the conclusion, which used the analysis of NREL's wind site for evaluation of wind turbine setbacks in general. The assumptions and results do not apply to commercial wind energy sites, as the conclusion suggests, and are therefore not suitable for setback recommendations in other locations.

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confidence: 99%

Retracted: Analysis of blade fragment risk at a wind energy facility

Larwood

Simms

2018

Wind Energy

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“…Carbone and Afferrante [59] explained the necessity of developing methodologies to assess risk in the areas surrounding the wind farm and presented a probabilistic method to estimate the blade throw hazard of wind turbines.…”

Section: Existing Approaches Of Risk Assessment In Wind Turbinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of wind turbines: Transition from pure mechanistic paradigm to modern complexity paradigm

Ashrafi

Davoudpour

Khodakarami

2015

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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“…used a simple approach to analyze possible setbacks based only on the lateral throw distance of fragments, although this methodology did not rigorously calculate the risk to a particular spatial area. More advanced approaches, for instance those in Carbone and Afferrante (2013), Larwood and van Dam (2015), and Morgan et al (1998), use the results of Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the risk imposed to a particular spatial area on the ground at a certain setback distance from the turbine. Carbone and Afferrante (2013) propose an approach in which a simulation model is used to estimate a probability density function (PDF) describing the probability of fragment impact over the ground.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology to assess wind turbine blade throw risk to vehicles on nearby roads

Rogers

Costello

2022

Wind Engineering

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The public road setback distance is often an important factor that drives wind farm design. This paper outlines a methodology for assessing the risk imposed by blade throw at various road setbacks using a physics-based simulation approach. Given a road setback distance, Monte Carlo simulation is performed wherein blade throw parameters and vehicle locations are randomized. Potential collisions are determined using an “impact circle” approach which assumes that impact occurs if the vehicle is inside the impact radius of the blade fragment when it lands. This approach is exercised on several example turbines and risk levels are calculated for various road setbacks. The method is also applied to a notional wind farm with turbines located at a typical road setback distance. Results show that the blade throw risk imposed to vehicles on public roads for the example wind farm is extremely small and commensurate with risks imposed by everyday activities.

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A novel probabilistic approach to assess the blade throw hazard of wind turbines

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Retracted: Analysis of blade fragment risk at a wind energy facility

Retracted: Analysis of blade fragment risk at a wind energy facility

Risk assessment of wind turbines: Transition from pure mechanistic paradigm to modern complexity paradigm

Methodology to assess wind turbine blade throw risk to vehicles on nearby roads

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