A Novel Approach to Fuzzy Cognitive Map Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Sets for Modeling Risk Impact on Electric Power System

Abstract

Electric power industry has been undergoing enormous transformations. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the security of electric power system and the decision capacity in the emergency process. As a complicated system, electric power system is affected by many factors, the reasoning of which can be regarded as a process that combines intuition and cognition. Uncertainty characterizes human cognitive and reasoning processes. Several extensions of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) model have been suggested to handle multifarious sources of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the uncertainty from human doubt may arise in the assignment of membership degrees, which is neglected in current FCMs. To deal with this problem, a novel approach based on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs) and FCMs, called hesitant fuzzy cognitive maps (HFCMs), is presented in this paper. The proposed method, which possesses the features of tackling hesitancy explicitly during the experts' assessments, is demonstrated by an example on the analysis of risk factors affecting electric power system. It can provide a better simulation of the inherent uncertainty in real problems through the hesitancy represented in experts' knowledge, and a what-if analysis for describing hesitant fuzzy scenario is well developed with the HFCM model.

Fuzzy cognitive maps in systems risk analysis: a comprehensive review

“…Yousefi S (with 9 papers) and Rezaee MJ (with 7 papers) have been among the most productive researchers in the field since 2017. Papageorgiou EI and Salmeron JL have 7 and 4 [79,116,73,144,145,74,132,11,98,159,115,164,124,143], Rezaee et al (2018b), [21], [86], [127], [102] 19…”

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A Hesitant Fuzzy Combined Compromise Solution Framework-Based on Discrimination Measure for Ranking Sustainable Third-Party Reverse Logistic Providers

“…Cheng [32] recommended a novel autocratic approach using group recommendations for HFSs to deal with the green hotel assessment problems. Liu et al [33] initiated the hesitant fuzzy cognitive maps and showed how to use it to explore the risk factors that arise in an electric power system. With the implementation of the HF-Complex Proportional Assessment (HF-COPRAS) method, Mishra et al [34] assessed and presented the ranking order of the service quality alternatives for vehicle insurance companies.…”

Probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making based on regret theory for the evaluation of venture capital projects

“…Based on fuzzy and rough set theory, Renigier-Biłozor, Janowski, and d'Amato (2019) proposed an automated valuation model for real estate market. In these methods, the decision-making process tends to be uncertain and ambiguous as it involves complexity of human cognitive thinking (Liu et al, 2019a(Liu et al, , 2019bZeng, Peng, Bale zentis, & Streimikiene, 2019). Therefore, it is hard for decision-makers to provide precise assessments in the assessment process (Chi, Yeh, & Lai, 2011;Gao, 2018;Lu, Tang, Wei, Wei, & Wei, 2019).…”