A nonlinear model of the pure growth cycle

Jarsulic, Marc

doi:10.1016/0167-2681(93)90060-3

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We agree, in fact, with those who think that chaotic behavior in economic series might not be detectable by time series analysis alone, because of the shortness of the series (Jarsulic, 1993); compare similar statements for climatic time series in Grassberger (1986) and Ghil (1994). We simply meant to provide a consistent framework for discussing the various views of long-term economic dynamics and how they may change the assessment of the costs and benefits of policies proposed to cope with the issues of climate change or energy transitions 9 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

Hallegatte

Ghil

Dumas

et al. 2008

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper is motivated by the rising interest in assessing the effect of disruptions in resources and environmental conditions on economic growth. Such an assessment requires, ultimately, the use of truly integrated models of the climate and economic systems. For these purposes, we have developed a Non-Equilibrium Dynamic Model (NEDyM) by introducing investment dynamics and nonequilibrium effects into a Solow growth model. NEDyM can reproduce various economic regimes, such as manager-or shareholder-driven economies, and permits one to examine the effects of disruptions on the economy, given either an assumption of steady-state growth or an assumption of business cycles with transient disequilibrium. We have applied NEDyM to an idealized economy that resembles in certain respects the 15-state European Union in 2001.The key parameter in NEDyM is investment flexibility. For certain values of this parameter, the model reproduces classical business cycles with realistic characteristics; in particular, NEDyM captures the cycles' asymmetry, with a longer growth phase and more rapid contraction. The cyclical behavior is due to the investmentprofit instability and is constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity. For somewhat greater investment flexibility, the model exhibits chaotic behavior, because a new constraint intervenes, namely limited investment capacity. The preliminary results presented here show that complex behavior in the economic system may be due entirely, or at least largely, to deterministic, intrinsic factors, even if the economic long-term equilibrium is neo-classical in nature. In the chaotic regime, moreover, slight shocks -such as those due to natural or man-made catastrophes -may lead to significant changes in the economic system.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

Hallegatte

Ghil

Dumas

et al. 2008

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Still, numerous authors (e.g., Hillinger, 1992;Jarsulic, 1993;Flaschel et al, 1997;Nikaido, 1996;Chiarella and Flaschel, 2000;Chiarella et al, 2005Chiarella et al, , 2006 have proposed recent EnBC models. The business cycles in these models arise from nonlinear relationships between economic aggregates and the competing instabilities they generate; they are consistent with certain realistic features of actual business cycles.…”

Section: Modeling Endogenous Economic Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

Ghil

Yiou

Hallegatte

et al. 2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

228

167

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction.Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

show abstract

“…Dynamic systems concepts and methodologies have been applied to such varied fields as criminology, where it has been used to identify patterns and cycles of crime in certain geographic locations (Walters, 1999); political science, where it has assisted with the explanation and modeling of the break-up and reorganization of the former Soviet republics (Luong, 2000); and addictions, where the approach has allowed researchers to predict relapse (Hufford, Witkiewitz, Shields, Kodya, & Caruso, 2003). Dynamic systems theory has also been used to reconceptualize the non-random behavior of financial markets throughout the world, to detect more chaotic (e.g., non-random) and less visible patterns in stock market behavior, and has allowed economic and financial researchers to develop new and more predictive models for understanding cyclical patterns in both consumer and corporate behavior (Abhyankar, Copeland, & Wong, 1995;Clyde & Olser, 1997;Hommes, 2001;Jarsulic, 1993;Trippi, 1995).…”

Section: Survey Of Research From a Dynamic Systems Perspectivementioning

confidence: 98%

Reconceptualizing Strategic Family Therapy: Insights from a Dynamic Systems Perspective

Gardner¹,

Burr²,

Wiedower³

2006

Contemp Fam Ther

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As one of the more mature marriage and family therapy (MFT) models, strategic family therapy has a distinguished and colorful history. Part of that history includes an era when strategic therapy was considered by some to be manipulative and even unethical. Recent advances in our understanding of the behavior of complex natural systems via dynamic systems theory may shed new light on the process of strategic family therapy and help us understand more fully the underlying purposes of the preferred therapeutic stance and clinical interventions of this model. We briefly review the theoretical and empirical literature associated with strategic therapy, followed by a detailed description of dynamic systems theory concepts. We conclude by linking the theory and practice of strategic therapy to the science of dynamic systems as a means of understanding why strategic therapy is an effective form of brief therapy.

show abstract

A nonlinear model of the pure growth cycle

Cited by 14 publications

References 28 publications

Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics

Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

Reconceptualizing Strategic Family Therapy: Insights from a Dynamic Systems Perspective

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About