A new nudging scheme for the current operational climate prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China

Song, Xunshu; Li, Xiaojing; Zhang, Shouwen; Li, Yang; Chen, Xinrong; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake

doi:10.1007/s13131-021-1857-4

Cited by 14 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The analysis on the possible sources of IOD predictability showed that both remote forcing from the tropical Pacific and the local sea‐air interaction in the Indian ocean are the major sources the IOD predictability. It is also suggested that the contribution of the subsurface ocean signal in the initial conditions to the IOD predictability is comparable to that of the surface temperature, implying that it may be an effective way to improve the IOD prediction skill by improving the assimilation quality of the subsurface signal (Doi et al., 2017; Song et al., 2022).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole Over 138 Years Using a CESM Ensemble‐Prediction System

et al. 2022

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In this study, we performed a long‐term ensemble hindcast from 1880 to 2017 (138 years) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and conducted a comprehensive investigation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability. We found that the CESM can produce the IOD prediction skill comparable to that produced by some of the best state‐of‐the‐art coupled general circulation models, achieving a correlation skill of 0.5 for a lead time of one season over the 138 years. The Brier skill score shows one season of the effective probability prediction skill for the below‐ and above‐normal events and no probability prediction skill for the near‐normal events. The potential predictability of the IOD is much higher than the actual prediction skill; for example, the information‐based potential correlation is as high as 0.8 at a 6‐month lead time, suggesting a large scope for improvement in current IOD predictions. Compared with the dispersion component, the signal component dominates the variation in the relative entropy and the relationship between the potential predictability and deterministic prediction skill. An analysis of the IOD prediction skills suggests that the strength of IOD events plays an important role in the IOD prediction skills, regardless of the measurement metrics used to evaluate the prediction skills. Our study also suggested that the remote forcing from the tropical Pacific and the local sea‐air interaction in the tropical Indian Ocean would be two major sources of IOD predictability.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We set the nudging coefficients for the wind components uniformly to (6 hr) −1 below 500 hPa and 0 above 500 hPa. We obtained these nudging coefficients through tuning experiments based on previous works (Song et al., 2022; Tang et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019).…”

Section: Model and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole Over 138 Years Using a CESM Ensemble‐Prediction System

et al. 2022

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“…The CESM-G ENSO ensemble prediction system consists of the CESM coupled model 41 and a data assimilation system which assimilates wind below 500 hPa and the subsurface ocean temperature in the upper 500m provided by the GODAS and ERA5 da-tasets 42 . The random linear combinations of the first three leading relevant singular vectors 43 of ocean temperature in the upper 200m are used to generate 10 ensemble members, which are used to measure the influence of uncertainty in the upper ocean temperature on ENSO prediction.…”

Section: Model Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

Tao¹,

Wang²,

Chen³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, while the strong atmospheric perturbations such as westerly wind burst and easterly wind surge sometimes play a decisive role in determining the final intensity of the event. The tropical Pacific Ocean has just experienced a rare 3-year La Niña, which accumulated a huge amount of warm water in the western basin by the winter of 2022. Using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, here we show that the restored warm water is sufficient to boost a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023, and that an extreme event could take place if a few sizable westerly wind bursts would occur in spring and early summer. This prediction is not sensitive to initial errors within the tropical Pacific, but may be subject to some uncertainties brought about by influences from elsewhere.

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“…This system assimilates measurements of surface and subsurface temperatures. The GODAS reanalysis has been widely applied in various oceanic and climatic studies, for example, initializing seasonal climate predictions in the NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other research and operational models (e.g., X. Liu et al., 2021; Ren et al., 2017; Song et al., 2022). The GODAS reanalysis is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, on their website at https://www.psl.noaa.gov//data/gridded/data.godas.html.…”

Section: Model Assimilation System Data and Experimental Designsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On Oceanic Initial State Errors in the Ensemble Data Assimilation for a Coupled General Circulation Model

Chen

Shen

Tang

2022

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Data assimilation (DA) combines a given model and observations to generate the optimal estimates of model states and initialize forecasts. DA methods from simple to complex are all applied in various studies according to de facto interests and resources. Methods include nudging, the 3-dimensional variational (3D-Var) method (Derber & Rosati, 1989) and ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI; Evensen, 2003) are adopted mainly because they are cost-effective. State-of-the-art DA methods include the 4-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) (Kalnay

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A new nudging scheme for the current operational climate prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China

Cited by 14 publications

References 42 publications

Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole Over 138 Years Using a CESM Ensemble‐Prediction System

Predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole Over 138 Years Using a CESM Ensemble‐Prediction System

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

On Oceanic Initial State Errors in the Ensemble Data Assimilation for a Coupled General Circulation Model

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