A new methodology to integrate human factors analysis and classification system with Bayesian Network

Predictive risk modelling with bayesian network for maritime applications

“…The collision causation probability obtained from the present model should be interpreted per the linguistic terms used for probability elicitation, rather than to its true probability in the power of e -4 as reported in (Det Norske Veritas, 2003). This is in line with (Y. F. Wang et al, 2010) Ren et al, 2009). As Rosqvist (2010) puts it, validation of risk analysis is not a property of the risk model but a property of the decision context.…”

“…Overall, the probability scale that maps qualitative statements to numerical values is preferred for its simplicity (Wiegmann, 2005). In (Y. F. Wang et al, 2010), the integration of HFACS, BN and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) were proposed for maritime accidents modelling, which was applied to a case study of the ship collision between Saetta and Conger in the Strait of Singapore. Similar to (Jun Ren et al, 2008), HFACS was used as guidance for the structure construction of the BN, while BN enabled the quantitative computations for the interplay between the causal factors.…”

“….Nevertheless, they lack the quantitative capabilities. In applications, they could be used as guidelines for the development of causal relationships for BN structure construction while BN could enhance their application with quantitative algorithm for the maritime accidents modelling (JunRen et al, 2008) (Y. F Wang et al, 2010) (Akhtar & Utne, 2014)(Friis-Hansen, 2008).…”

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

“…As a result of these calculations, according to Equation (12), the aggregated result value of the BE5 was found to be (0.7565, 0.8219, 0.8873). (13) to convert R AG to R AG (FPS), and then use Equation ( 14) to generate failure probability (FP). The FP of all BEs is presented in Table 8.…”

“…Despite its unique capabilities as an effective tool to identify and classify the HOFs in accident investigation, HFACS has been criticized for the lack of quantitative analysis and the complex interdependencies among causal factors and reasoning [11,12]. Wang et al [13] agreed that quantification would enhance the analytical capabilities of the HFACS and make it feasible to gain deeper insight and more substantive and objective analysis during accident investigations. Hence, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to enhance the quantitative expression ability of HFACS and clarify the degree of complex dependence between related factors.…”