Currently, there
is insufficient knowledge on the development of
China’s low-permeability gas reservoirs under ultrahigh-temperature
and high-pressure conditions; furthermore, the actual development
process is difficult and has high technical demands. For example,
the Ledong block in the South China Sea is a typical gas reservoir
characterized using ultrahigh temperature (190 °C), high pressure
(90 MPa), high water production, and low permeability (less than 1
mD). However, it is difficult to determine the factors influencing
its production capacity, and the application of the traditional production
capacity model is problematic because of the production of water.
Accordingly, this study, which is based on the seepage theory, considers
the influence of water production on the productivity of a single
well; this study establishes an evaluation method for a low-permeability
water-bearing gas reservoir vertical well (i.e., a highly deviated
well) to determine how an unsteady state affects productivity. This
method comprehensively considers stress sensitivity, initial pressure
gradient, gas–water permeability, formation thickness, absolute
permeability, supply radius, discharge radius, and well deviation
angles to clarify the main factors affecting the productivity of single
wells. Statistical methods are used to calculate and analyze the key
influential factors, and this study provides quantitative evaluation
methods to understand the productivity (and its influencing factors)
of both vertical and highly deviated wells and the law of productivity
decline. The model calculates the unblocked flow rate for 18 years
as 319 × 10
4
m
3
/d. Compared with the actual
production unblocked flow rate of 332 × 10
4
m
3
/d, the average error is 3.9%, which is within the allowed
engineering range. Research shows the following order of factor influence
on productivity: produced water–gas volume ratio > permeability
> stress sensitivity coefficient > reservoir thickness >
start-up
pressure gradient > well deviation angle > discharge radius.
Water
saturation is the main factor affecting the unsteady-state productivity
of gas wells in low-permeability gas reservoirs. In this study, with
a production time of 100 days, the water saturation increases from
45 to 85%, and the open flow of the gas well decreases significantly
from 30.1 × 10
4
to 1.6 × 10
4
m
3
/d, which is a decrease of 94.7%. Moreover, a continuous increase
in the stress sensitivity coefficient, start-up pressure gradient,
and water saturation caused a leftward shift in the inflow performance
relationship curves of the modeled gas wells, whereas their production
decreased.