A multifactor model for predicting mortality in critically ill patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review

“…Characteristics of the mortality prediction models and underlying derivation cohorts are presented in Table 1. In all, 19 mortality prediction models (44%) were developed using prospectively collected data specifically gathered for the development of the prediction model, 6,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] whereas 24 (56%) were developed using either retrospective data [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44] or prospective data previously collected for other purposes. [45][46][47][48][49] The start of data collection for the development cohorts spanned 36 years (1979-2015), and the duration of the cohort studies varying from 2 months up to 10 years for each cohort.…”

“…Two mortality prediction models (4.7%) did not report the timespan during which their development cohort was assembled. 22,33 In all, 31 mortality prediction models (74%) were developed in a single country, 14,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]29,31,[33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]47,49 six (14%) in neighbouring countries (two or more) 6,13,28,30,32,46 and five (12%) were developed in multiple countries worldwide. [15][16][17]48 The number of patients included in the development databases ranged from 232 to 731 611 patients with a median of 4,895 (IQR 528-35 878).…”

“…Hospital mortality was the most frequently used primary outcome in 29 (67%) mortality prediction models. 6,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19]21,22,24,27,28,[30][31][32][33]35,36,38,[41][42][43]45,46 Other primary outcome variables were ICU mortality (7%), 23,26,34 28-day mortality (4.7%), 39,44 90-day mortality (4.7%), 48,49 3-to 28-day mortality (4.7%), 40 30-day mortality (2.3%), 47 180-day mortality (2.3%), 20 6-month mortality (2.3%), 25 15-year mortality (2.3%), 37 and 6-and 12-month mortality (2.3%). 29 Secondary outcomes were 1-month mortality after ICU admission (4.7%), 24,31 hospital mortality (4.7%), 29,34 ICU mortality (2.3%), 45 3-month mortality after ICU admission (2.3%), 31 6-month mortality after ICU admission (2.3%), 31 9-month mortality (2.3%), 47 1-year mortality (2.3%)…”

“…29 Secondary outcomes were 1-month mortality after ICU admission (4.7%), 24,31 hospital mortality (4.7%), 29,34 ICU mortality (2.3%), 45 3-month mortality after ICU admission (2.3%), 31 6-month mortality after ICU admission (2.3%), 31 9-month mortality (2.3%), 47 1-year mortality (2.3%) 45 and length of stay (2.3%). 24 Of the 43, 37 mortality prediction models (86%) did not prognosticate any secondary outcome. 6,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28]30,32,33,[35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]46,48,49 Hospital mortality rates of the development cohorts varied from 6.9% to 48% and were not reported for nine mortality prediction models (21%).…”

“…6,15,18,29,33,40,42 For 21 mortality prediction models (49% of 43), data were collected within the first 24 hours after patient admission to the ICU. 6,13,14,[17][18][19]24,26,27,30,31,34,38,39,42,44,[47][48][49] For 11 prediction models (26%), data on ICU admission were collected, 16,23,25,28,32,35,36,41,43,45,46 whereas for the remaining prediction models data timing varied from 24 days before admission up to 5 days after patient admission to the ICU.…”