Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review

Keuning, Britt E.; Kaufmann, Thomas; Wiersema, Renske; Granholm, Anders; Pettilä, Ville; Møller, Morten Hylander; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo; Forte, José Castela; Snieder, Harold; Keus, Frederik; Pleijhuis, Rick G.; Horst, Iwan C C van der

doi:10.1111/aas.13527

Cited by 41 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Identification of risk factors depends on the goodness of fit of the model, and we show that model performance for ICU mortality [ 24 ], as well as for ventilator and ICU days [ 25 ], is consistent with the pre-COVID-19 literature. We observe an increase in model performance later throughout the course of IMV, which may indicate that the clinical characteristics better reflect the state of the patient, or the predictors more uniformly relate to the outcome.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Risk factors for adverse outcomes during mechanical ventilation of 1152 COVID-19 patients: a multicenter machine learning study with highly granular data from the Dutch Data Warehouse

Fleuren

Tonutti²,

Bruin³

et al. 2021

ICMx

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Background The identification of risk factors for adverse outcomes and prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in COVID-19 patients is essential for prognostication, determining treatment intensity, and resource allocation. Previous studies have determined risk factors on admission only, and included a limited number of predictors. Therefore, using data from the highly granular and multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, we developed machine learning models to identify risk factors for ICU mortality, ventilator-free days and ICU-free days during the course of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in COVID-19 patients. Methods The DDW is a growing electronic health record database of critically ill COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. All adult ICU patients on IMV were eligible for inclusion. Transfers, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at time of data extraction were excluded. Predictors were selected based on the literature, and included medication dosage and fluid balance. Multiple algorithms were trained and validated on up to three sets of observations per patient on day 1, 7, and 14 using fivefold nested cross-validation, keeping observations from an individual patient in the same split. Results A total of 1152 patients were included in the model. XGBoost models performed best for all outcomes and were used to calculate predictor importance. Using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), age was the most important demographic risk factor for the outcomes upon start of IMV and throughout its course. The relative probability of death across age values is visualized in Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs), with an increase starting at 54 years. Besides age, acidaemia, low P/F-ratios and high driving pressures demonstrated a higher probability of death. The PDP for driving pressure showed a relative probability increase starting at 12 cmH2O. Conclusion Age is the most important demographic risk factor of ICU mortality, ICU-free days and ventilator-free days throughout the course of invasive mechanical ventilation in critically ill COVID-19 patients. pH, P/F ratio, and driving pressure should be monitored closely over the course of mechanical ventilation as risk factors predictive of these outcomes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Risk factors for adverse outcomes during mechanical ventilation of 1152 COVID-19 patients: a multicenter machine learning study with highly granular data from the Dutch Data Warehouse

Fleuren

Tonutti²,

Bruin³

et al. 2021

ICMx

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“…Furthermore, by validating all prediction models in the same cohort, there were no differences in the patient sample, and we could truly compare the scores. 37 Second, the process of selecting prediction models for our analysis might have been incomplete. We chose prediction models that were feasible in our ED setting, which may be different for other EDs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of prediction models for short term outcome in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a retrospective study

Dam

Zelis

Kuijk

et al. 2020

Preprint

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IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a high burden on the healthcare system and demands information on the outcome early after admission to the emergency department (ED). Previously developed prediction models may assist in triaging patients when allocating healthcare resources. We aimed to assess the value of several prediction models when applied to COVID-19 patients in the ED.MethodsAll consecutive COVID-19 patients who visited the ED of a combined secondary/tertiary care center were included. Prediction models were selected based on their feasibility. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, secondary outcomes were 14-day mortality, and a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and admission to the medium care unit (MCU) or the intensive care unit (ICU). The discriminatory performance of the prediction models was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 403 ED patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. Within 30 days, 95 patients died (23.6%), 14-day mortality was 19.1%. Forty-eight patients (11.9%) were admitted to the MCU, 66 patients (16.4%) to the ICU and 152 patients (37.7%) met the composite endpoint. Eleven models were included: RISE UP score, 4C mortality score, CURB-65, MEWS, REMS, abbMEDS, SOFA, APACHE II, CALL score, ACP index and Host risk factor score. The RISE UP score and 4C mortality score showed a very good discriminatory performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83 and 0.84 respectively, 95% CI 0.79-0.88 for both), for 14-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79-0.88, for both) and for the composite outcome (AUC 0.79 and 0.77 respectively, 95% CI 0.75-0.84). The discriminatory performance of the RISE UP score and 4C mortality score was significantly higher compared to that of the other models.ConclusionThe RISE UP score and 4C mortality score have good discriminatory performance in predicting adverse outcome in ED patients with COVID-19. These prediction models can be used to recognize patients at high risk for short-term poor outcome and may assist in guiding clinical decision-making and allocating healthcare resources.

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“…For example, the Revised Injury Severity Classification II (RISC II) score is mainly based on severely injured patients treated in the ICU [16], the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is recommended for triaging perioperative patients [17], and the Physiological Parameters for Prognosis in Abdominal Sepsis (PIPAS) is for patients with acute peritonitis [18]. The scoring systems currently in use may have varied results for trauma patients [19,20]. As the best predictive score should be validated in the focused population and geographic region where the scoring system is to be employed [6], this study was designed to compare the performance of the aforementioned 11 prognostic scoring systems for predicting mortality outcomes in trauma patients in the ICU.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of Prognostic Scoring Systems in Trauma Patients in the Intensive Care Unit of a Trauma Center

Chou

Liu

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Background: Prediction of mortality outcomes in trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is important for patient care and quality improvement. We aimed to measure the performance of 11 prognostic scoring systems for predicting mortality outcomes in trauma patients in the ICU. Methods: Prospectively registered data in the Trauma Registry System from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2018 were used to extract scores from prognostic scoring systems for 1554 trauma patients in the ICU. The following systems were used: the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS); the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II); the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II); mortality prediction models (MPM II) at admission, 24, 48, and 72 h; the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS); the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA); the Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS); and the Three Days Recalibrated ICU Outcome Score (TRIOS). Predictive performance was determined according to the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Results: MPM II at 24 h had the highest AUC (0.9213), followed by MPM II at 48 h (AUC: 0.9105). MPM II at 24, 48, and 72 h (0.8956) had a significantly higher AUC than the TRISS (AUC: 0.8814), APACHE II (AUC: 0.8923), SAPS II (AUC: 0.9044), MPM II at admission (AUC: 0.9063), MODS (AUC: 0.8179), SOFA (AUC: 0.7073), LODS (AUC: 0.9013), and TRIOS (AUC: 0.8701). There was no significant difference in the predictive performance of MPM II at 24 and 48 h (p = 0.37) or at 72 h (p = 0.10). Conclusions: We compared 11 prognostic scoring systems and demonstrated that MPM II at 24 h had the best predictive performance for 1554 trauma patients in the ICU.

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Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

Cited by 41 publications

References 67 publications

Risk factors for adverse outcomes during mechanical ventilation of 1152 COVID-19 patients: a multicenter machine learning study with highly granular data from the Dutch Data Warehouse

Risk factors for adverse outcomes during mechanical ventilation of 1152 COVID-19 patients: a multicenter machine learning study with highly granular data from the Dutch Data Warehouse

Performance of prediction models for short term outcome in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a retrospective study

Performance of Prognostic Scoring Systems in Trauma Patients in the Intensive Care Unit of a Trauma Center

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