A Multi-State Physics Modeling approach for the reliability assessment of Nuclear Power Plants piping systems

Maio, Francesco Di; Colli, Davide; Zio, Enrico; Liu, Tao; Tong, Jiejuan

doi:10.1016/j.anucene.2015.02.007

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The test blanket module port plug (TBM PP) consists of a TBM frame and two TBM-sets. For the TBM PP, the neutron flux is about 1E?11 cm -2 s -1 [20]. The HCCB TBM will be gradually tested in four operation phases of ITER.…”

Section: The Radiation Damage Correction Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are several different methods that have been applied to estimation of pipe failure rates, such as the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) method, the probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) method, the expert judgment method, and the Markov Chain Model (MCM) method [16][17][18][19][20]. However, the operating environments and conditions known to affect reliability of pipe were not considered in the above methods.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reliability Data Analysis for Tritium Extraction System Pipes of CN HCCB TBM

Nie

Wang

et al. 2015

J Fusion Energ

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A tritium extraction system (TES) is one of important ancillary systems of the China helium cooled ceramic breeder test blanket module (CN HCCB TBM). The high reliability and availability of TES will be needed for safety operation of circulation and processing of tritium purge gas. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and reliability, availability, maintainability, inspectability (RAMI) analysis of the TES should be performed during the design phase according to the CN HCCB TBM plan. Accurate reliability data is required to provide meaningful results for PSA and RAMI analysis. Since there is no TES pipes failure rate data available from fusion operating experiences. Therefore, it is necessary to use the existing pipe operating experiences to calculate component failure rates of the TES pipes. In this paper, the k factor method was used to adjust the failure rates of the TES pipes under the different environments and conditions by combining physics of failure models and a conservative estimation technique. The failure rates of the TES can provide references for the optimization of TES pipes design and data support for PSA and RAMI analysis of the TES.

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Section: The Radiation Damage Correction Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Data Analysis for Tritium Extraction System Pipes of CN HCCB TBM

Nie

Wang

et al. 2015

J Fusion Energ

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“…For example, the manufacturing, production, power generation and oil and/or gas transportation systems, whose overall performance can be settled on different levels ( e.g. 100%, 80%, 50% of the nominal capacity), depending on their operating conditions of their constitutive multi-state elements [12,31,24,34,44,9]. These phenomena make it cumbersome to suffice increasingly stringent requirements for accurate reliability assessment using traditional binary reliability methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The widespread recognition of MSS is that it has been defined as having different performance levels and/or some failure modes with corresponding effects on the system's entire performance. Many researchers have made various contributions for the MSS reliability evaluation and modeling theory recently [13,23,8,9,27,40]. The commonly adopted methods have five basic approaches, such as, an extension of binary theory to MSS cases, the stochastic process approach, the universal generating function (UGF), the Monte-Carlo simulation and recursive algorithm etc [14,45,22,19,2,20,37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A combined method for reliability analysis of multi-state system of minor-repairable components

Qin

Niu

Liu

2016

EiN

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“…MSPM is a semi-Markov modeling framework that allows inserting physical knowledge on the system failure process, for improving the system reliability assessment by accounting for the effects of both the stochastic degradation process and the uncertain environmental and operational parameters (Unwin et al, 2011;Di Maio et al, 2015;Lin et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three-loop Monte Carlo simulation approach to Multi-State Physics Modeling for system reliability assessment

Wang

Maio

Zio

2017

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) provides a physics-based semiMarkov modeling framework for a more detailed reliability assessment. In this work, a three-loop Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme is proposed to operationalize the MSPM approach, quantifying and controlling the uncertainty affecting the system reliability model. The proposed MC simulation scheme involves three steps: i) the identification of the system components that deserve MSPM, ii) the quantification of the uncertainties in the MSPM component models and their propagation onto the system-level model, and iii) the selection of the most suitable modeling alternative that balances the computational demand for the system model solution and the robustness of the system reliability estimates.A Reactor Protection System (RPS) of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is considered as case study for numerical evaluation.

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A Multi-State Physics Modeling approach for the reliability assessment of Nuclear Power Plants piping systems

Cited by 24 publications

References 13 publications

Reliability Data Analysis for Tritium Extraction System Pipes of CN HCCB TBM

Reliability Data Analysis for Tritium Extraction System Pipes of CN HCCB TBM

A combined method for reliability analysis of multi-state system of minor-repairable components

Three-loop Monte Carlo simulation approach to Multi-State Physics Modeling for system reliability assessment

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